MONTGOMERY, Ala.– With just five days until the midterm elections, a poll by Cygnal, a national polling and research firm, shows Republican Brian Kemp with a 2-point advantage over Democrat Stacey Abrams in Georgia’s Governor Race.
The live telephone survey conducted October 28 – 30, shows Kemp leading Abrams 49% to 47%. 4% of respondents prefer Libertarian Candidate Ted Metz. Surprisingly, there were no undecided voters after initial undecided respondents were asked which candidate they lean toward.
Of the 39% of respondents who have already voted, 53% indicated they supported Abrams, while 44% say they’ve voted for Kemp. Conversely, of the 57% of respondents who say they will definitely vote (on election day), Kemp leads 51% – 45%.
“President Trump’s popularity is providing a boost to Republicans on the ballot,” said Brett Cowden, Cygnal’s vice president of client strategy. “The key is going to be who shows up to vote and the final partisan composition. If supporters of the president turn out, Republicans will probably win, if not, Democrats have a chance at victory in the gubernatorial race.
As the final days of election season come to a close, interest in the midterm election remains intense. When asked how interested they were in the upcoming midterm elections on a scale of 0 to 10, 84% of survey respondents rated their interest as a 9 or 10. Only 4% of voters said their interest in the election was low, falling between 0 and 5.
“With next to no undecided voters in this Race, Kemp needs a higher turnout of low-propensity Republicans to win without a runoff,” said Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s President and Founder. “But if turnout ends up lower than expected, Abrams could take the ‘W’ on Tuesday.”
Down-Ballot Races
• Republican Chris Carr leads Democrat Charlie Bailey on the Attorney General ballot53% – 45%. Only 2% of voters remain undecided.
• Republican Brad Raffensperger leads Democrat John Barrow on the Secretary of State ballot 47% – 45%, well inside the margin of error. 6% of respondents prefer Libertarian Candidate Smythe DuVal, while only 1% of voters remain undecided.
• Republican Richard Woods leadsDemocrat Otha Thornton on the Superintendent ofSchools ballot,55% – 44%. 1% of voters remain undecided.
Methodology
This probabilistic live telephonesurvey was conducted on October 28 – 30 with 504 likely general election voters, giving the poll a margin of error of ±4.36%. Interviews were conducted by live professional agents calling landline and cell phones. Cygnal is unaffiliated with either campaign or outside groups in the race.
The toplines and crosstabs have been uploaded to our website. You can view our analysis memo here and a presentation of the results here.
Full data sets – including complete crosstabs, Smart Tables, and an extended memo – are available for purchase at a nominal fee; email [email protected] for details.
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Cygnal is a Montgomery, Ala.-based polling and research firm that has conducted more than 780 survey research projects in 42 states, including more than 200 in Alabama. Our team nailed both the 2014 and 2016 election cycles, correctly predicting Trump’s margin in Florida and his win in Wisconsin. Campaigns, corporations, associations, national committees, and state organizations rely on Cygnal to gather reliable, affordable polling data in state-wide, congressional, legislative, and local geographies.