Posts by Noah

The Imaginary Democratic Rural Gains

Below is a map showing the change in the margin between 2016 and 2020. I’m sure you’ve seen it many times before but if not, this looks like a lot of blue. One of the reasons that it appears blue is that Biden made gains in the margins of rural counties, especially in places like the Midwest and Appalachia, where other Democrats have […]

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Republican Priorities are Shifting with the News

At Cygnal, we run a tracking poll of about 6,000 respondents nationwide every month that asks questions about Biden’s approval, the generic ballot, among others that you can check out here: https://www.cygn.al/services/district-issue-tracking/. We also run state and area-based modeling so you can see the toplines on a more granular level. One of the questions that we ask is […]

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The Real Variable That Is Predicting Realignment

If you’ve been following politics, you may have heard the phrase “density polarization” to refer to the new political realignment. Derek Thompson of The Atlantic even referred to it as the “destiny” of the new coalition. This refers to the fact that rural areas are consistently voting more Republican, while cities are voting Democratic. At […]

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The Parties’ Changing Coalitions by Congressional District

Though we disagree vehemently on ideology 🤫, the data team over at Daily Kos Elections has calculated the results of the last three presidential elections by congressional district, a gift for us election data nerds.  Here at Cygnal, we like to use these numbers to look at different trends over time – especially anything that […]

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County Trends & Toplines

Below is a dashboard that tracks the difference in the margin between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. In the top left corner is a dropdown menu to filter the results by whichever state you would like to see. The top is a map and then all of the counties are plotted below showing the […]

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Republicans Raised 2 Billion Dollars in 2020. Where Did it Go? We Have the Details.

After years of being outpaced among individual donors, WinRed, a donation platform, was created as an answer to ActBlue Democratic's third-party processing site for donations . With the party completely on board, WinRed would process almost $2 billion for the 2020 cycle to federal races, on top of state and local candidates. Find out where the money went.

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