Political campaigns are like fingerprints, no two are exactly alike. For campaigns locally or nationally, that makes it hard to develop a playbook or template to better ensure victory. Many have tried and many have failed but we are never in shortage of a campaign to run or candidate to field.
Setting aside all the maxims from political wizards, pundits, and experts, we know polling and fundraising are intrinsically linked, often working in tandem to drive campaign success. While conventional wisdom might suggest that underdog candidates in deep blue districts or even those in tight races should shy away from polling, the reality is quite different. Even in seemingly daunting uphill battles, strategic polling can illuminate a path to victory and provide compelling reasons for donors to invest.
Take, for example, a Republican mayor running in a traditionally Democratic Southern California district. By leveraging polling data, the campaign can identify key issues that resonate with voters and craft a message that appeals to both the base and potential crossover voters. This targeted approach not only helps shape the campaign narrative but also demonstrates to donors that there’s a viable strategy in place. This leads to another consideration: that a longshot campaign with a viable and well-informed strategy could not only influence the future political climate but potentially benefit from the inevitable big moments, those October surprises, which always occur in campaigns. Sometimes the smallest of underdogs pull off big upsets (see; Bowman, Cantor, etc.).
Polling can also be instrumental in courting specific donor groups. For instance, a candidate looking to secure support from organizations like the Republican Jewish Coalition (RJC) can use poll results to showcase their alignment on key issues like antisemitism on college campuses, proving themselves as a worthy ally and investment.
On the flip side, fundraising efforts can be significantly bolstered by the right polling data. In some cases, a candidate’s opponent can become a fundraising catalyst. We’ve seen this with progressive “Squad” members, as well as figures like Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, whose national profiles have helped create robust fundraising bases for Republicans.
It’s crucial to break down the silos that naturally form between polling and fundraising teams. Without data-driven messaging, fundraisers often resort to reacting to the news cycle, missing opportunities to tap into donor motivations effectively. Campaigns that integrate polling insights into their fundraising strategies see a clear correlation in donation volume and amounts.
However, it’s important to strike a balance. Overly aggressive fundraising based on polling data can backfire, potentially tanking a campaign. The key is to use polling to grow your donor base strategically, identifying topics that resonate and those that don’t.
When synergy happens between polling and fundraising, the result is undeniable. Campaigns that harness this relationship effectively can see significant returns on investment, with noticeable spikes in donations following the release of polling data. As the political landscape evolves, this data-driven approach to fundraising will become increasingly crucial for a campaign’s success.
Chris Lane is a Pollster and Director of Client Strategy at Cygnal and Kenneth Mika is the CEO at Politicoin. This blog post was co-written by Lane and Mika.