The Imaginary Democratic Rural Gains
Below is a map showing the change in the margin between 2016 and 2020. I’m sure you’ve seen it many times before but if not, this looks like a lot of blue. One of the reasons that it appears blue is that Biden made gains in the margins of rural counties, especially in places like the Midwest and Appalachia, where other Democrats have […]
Read MoreThe Real Variable That Is Predicting Realignment
If you’ve been following politics, you may have heard the phrase “density polarization” to refer to the new political realignment. Derek Thompson of The Atlantic even referred to it as the “destiny” of the new coalition. This refers to the fact that rural areas are consistently voting more Republican, while cities are voting Democratic. At […]
Read MoreCurrent Political & COVID-19 Environment – Early May 2021
Yeah, I know. You’re tired of hearing about COVID-19. Trust me, I am too–and so is the rest of America. But we still conducted a national survey on the topic along with a generic ballot (further down the article). Based on our recent national survey of the general population, COVID-19 concern is on the downswing […]
Read MorePolling is More Than a Ballot Test
Show me the political environment, election trends, and candidate images in any district in the country, and I’ll tell you where the race stands today. Too often, campaigns, consultants, and committees get tied around the axel over the ballot test. What matters more is what has to be done to win the race by shifting […]
Read MoreCygnal Saw the Future of Polling First…FiveThirtyEight Agrees
Cygnal was the only Republican pollster with absolutely no races with an error outside the margin of error. We also predicted the correct winner in 95% of our pre-election polls.
Read MorePolling Is Broken…At Least the Very Old & Very New Ways of Doing It
Not a conversation has gone by in the past several months that hasn’t devolved into “what’s wrong with polling” after someone finds out I work at a polling firm. And there’s good reason for the general public – and even practitioners – to doubt the accuracy of political polls. Let’s step into some minutia quickly […]
Read MoreCounty Trends & Toplines
Below is a dashboard that tracks the difference in the margin between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. In the top left corner is a dropdown menu to filter the results by whichever state you would like to see. The top is a map and then all of the counties are plotted below showing the […]
Read MoreRepublicans Raised 2 Billion Dollars in 2020. Where Did it Go? We Have the Details.
After years of being outpaced among individual donors, WinRed, a donation platform, was created as an answer to ActBlue Democratic's third-party processing site for donations . With the party completely on board, WinRed would process almost $2 billion for the 2020 cycle to federal races, on top of state and local candidates. Find out where the money went.
Read MorePolling: the Panacea for Persuasion During a Pandemic
Think back to the end of the 2020 state legislative sessions. Legislative chambers across the country closed their doors as the pandemic spread. Some, like in Georgia, hit the pause button due to COVID-19 outbreaks among members then finished up in the summer. The public and lobbyists weren’t allowed in the building. It’s looking like […]
Read More2020 Is Insane! Understand Voter Emotions to Know Why.
It’s hard to find the right words to describe this election cycle. 2020 is like the gift that keeps on giving…🤯 Nothing feels normal, especially with a worldwide pandemic, an economic crisis, a vacant supreme court seat, and a divisive presidential election.
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