How The Abortion Issue Reshaped The ’22 Midterm Landscape
On June 24th, 2022, the Supreme Court issued the ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overruling Roe v. Wade and the federally protected right to an abortion. Since then, there has been a decidedly significant shift in the political environment. However, time slots and prices are irrelevant if the messaging is faulty.
Read MoreMessage Mapping: The Next Evolution of Political Message Testing
One of the most crucial components to any political campaign is television messaging. Knowing how to communicate a candidate’s message and target particular constituencies is paramount to a successful campaign. Television advertising is a great challenge given the scarcity of well-positioned time slots and increased pricing as elections grow nearer. However, time slots and prices are irrelevant if the messaging is faulty.
Read MoreHow Republicans Can ‘Thread the Needle’ in Purple States
For our friends running in competitive blue and purple states, all they are hearing this cycle is “Well, if there was ever a year to do it…” Well, that’s true. Our national survey shows that very clearly. Unsustainable inflation, never-ending tax increase proposals, calls to defund our local law enforcement, and relentless “woke” cancel […]
Read MoreCygnal National Voter Trends Panel
Cygnal President & Founder Brent Buchanan discusses the national trends and data revealed in our national voter survey for our district and issue tracking service (DIT). He is joined by data expert Noah Wyhof-Rudnick to dive deeper into these findings. Cygnal employs custom data science called District & Issue Tracking to take a large-sample statewide […]
Read MoreThe Rider and The Elephant
Often, the candidates best informed on policy have the most trouble connecting with voters. Part of the problem—for every type of campaign, but especially for policy-focused candidates—is that emotions play a central role in voter choice and decision making, but campaigns and candidates too often focus only on marshaling logic and data when communicating with […]
Read MoreThe Art of Analytics
Predictive Analytics—it’s everywhere these days. It’s used in every flavor of business from large tech companies to sports. But how are predictive analytics useful in the political arena? What can it do? When used in the political space, predictive analytics does exactly what it does in every other area where it is used: saves time and improves the allocation of resources. One campaign […]
Read MoreBiden’s Future Hinges on an Economic Recovery
James Carville minted the phrase, “It’s the economy, stupid,” in 1992 to win the presidency, and it appears that not much has changed since then. Every month, Cygnal runs a nationwide tracking poll of around 6,000 respondents that asks questions about the national environment, top issues, and more. You can check out the service here: https://www.cygn.al/services/district-issue-tracking/. One question that is the most interesting when trying to get a gauge of the nation is taking the temperature […]
Read MoreThe Imaginary Democratic Rural Gains
Below is a map showing the change in the margin between 2016 and 2020. I’m sure you’ve seen it many times before but if not, this looks like a lot of blue. One of the reasons that it appears blue is that Biden made gains in the margins of rural counties, especially in places like the Midwest and Appalachia, where other Democrats have […]
Read MoreThe Real Variable That Is Predicting Realignment
If you’ve been following politics, you may have heard the phrase “density polarization” to refer to the new political realignment. Derek Thompson of The Atlantic even referred to it as the “destiny” of the new coalition. This refers to the fact that rural areas are consistently voting more Republican, while cities are voting Democratic. At […]
Read MoreCurrent Political & COVID-19 Environment – Early May 2021
Yeah, I know. You’re tired of hearing about COVID-19. Trust me, I am too–and so is the rest of America. But we still conducted a national survey on the topic along with a generic ballot (further down the article). Based on our recent national survey of the general population, COVID-19 concern is on the downswing […]
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