National Survey: Classified documents, ’24 presidential matchups, and Roe impact
WASHINGTON D.C. – A survey of 2,529 likely 2024 general election voters – conducted by the international polling and predictive analytics firm Cygnal – shows former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden’s classified documents scandals have canceled each other out, Governor Ron DeSantis performs slightly better than other GOP candidates in a hypothetical 2024 presidential race, and despite people being bothered by the decision, only 9% of voters report the overturning of Roe v. Wade having a negative impact on them.
Read MorePOLL: Midterm shakeup, DeSantis within 5% of Trump
WASHINGTON D.C. – A survey of 1,019 likely Republican presidential primary voters – a much larger sample than many recent primary polls reported on in recent weeks – conducted by the international polling and predictive analytics firm Cygnal shows former President Donald Trump has slipped a few points on the presidential primary ballot while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ image and ballot standing are on the rise.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Michigan Statewide – 11/5/22
For our last MI tracking poll, we show Governor Whitmer with a 4%-point lead on the gubernatorial ballot that shrinks to three and a half points when leaners are pushed. Democrats are leading in the other races as well, despite Republicans holding the edge on the generic congressional ballot.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 11/4/22
We believe that about a quarter of voters have already voted in Ohio as we enter the final weekend before Election Day. In this writeup, we’ll explore where we have the final ballots and then a few different turnout scenarios for the Senate.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Michigan Statewide – 11/3/22
The races have tightened with Republicans reclaiming the lead on the generic ballot, as Biden’s approval takes a small hit. Whitmer has also slipped just under 50% but after pushing undecided, comes back out to a 5-point lead. The top of the ticket for the governor’s race seems to be mirroring the images on these questions.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 11/2/22
Biden’s unfavorable share remained above 61% for our second tracker in a row as inflation ticked up as a top issue to a new high of 37.2%. This number is even higher among those who have yet to vote, as shown below, so it’s even more potent as an issue
Read MorePOLL: Republicans Continue to Grow Momentum in Lead Up to Election Day
WASHINGTON D.C. — A survey of 2,015 likely midterm voters, conducted by the international polling and predictive analytics firm Cygnal, shows the GOP leading the generic ballot by 3 points headed into the final week of the midterm cycle.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Michigan Statewide – 11/1/22
The Democratic advantage on the generic ballot ticked back down to a one-point lead. Not much moved in the gubernatorial race with a six-and-a-half-point lead still for the incumbent Democrat, but the favorable gap between Whitmer and Dixon is now five points (that usually can be a leading indicator).
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 10/31/22
In our poll, about 19% of respondents say they have already voted, which would put us in the turnout range of about 4.8 million, give or take a few hundred thousand on either side. This is a bit higher than 2018 though well below 2020 levels, which lines up if you look at early voting data (though older) that is a little ahead of 2018. We are seeing a shift in Republicans towards Election Day so there should be a larger number coming in then. We also only have 13% of voters who still have to vote early, and some might drop off so expect the bulk of the voting in Ohio to be on Election Day.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Michigan Statewide – 10/30/22
As the statewide average for gas in Michigan drops below $4, we also see the generic ballot flip towards the Democrats, and Governor Whitmer makes some gains on the ballot to +7. Interestingly enough, Whitmer and GOP candidate Tudor Dixon’s image stayed about even. One thing to keep an eye on in the closing week is that among voters who have not yet voted but say that they definitely will. Dixon holds a 50% / 45% (+5%) lead but falls behind by 10 points down 39% / 49% among those who say they probably will.
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