Cygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 11/2/22
Biden’s unfavorable share remained above 61% for our second tracker in a row as inflation ticked up as a top issue to a new high of 37.2%. This number is even higher among those who have yet to vote, as shown below, so it’s even more potent as an issue
Read MorePOLL: Republicans Continue to Grow Momentum in Lead Up to Election Day
WASHINGTON D.C. — A survey of 2,015 likely midterm voters, conducted by the international polling and predictive analytics firm Cygnal, shows the GOP leading the generic ballot by 3 points headed into the final week of the midterm cycle.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Michigan Statewide – 11/1/22
The Democratic advantage on the generic ballot ticked back down to a one-point lead. Not much moved in the gubernatorial race with a six-and-a-half-point lead still for the incumbent Democrat, but the favorable gap between Whitmer and Dixon is now five points (that usually can be a leading indicator).
Read MoreOctober National Voter Trends Panel
In our October National Voter Trends Panel, Cygnal President & Founder Brent Buchanan and Director of Sampling & Innovation Noah Wyhof-Rudnick delivered key insights into the data shifts from the past month before midterms.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 10/31/22
In our poll, about 19% of respondents say they have already voted, which would put us in the turnout range of about 4.8 million, give or take a few hundred thousand on either side. This is a bit higher than 2018 though well below 2020 levels, which lines up if you look at early voting data (though older) that is a little ahead of 2018. We are seeing a shift in Republicans towards Election Day so there should be a larger number coming in then. We also only have 13% of voters who still have to vote early, and some might drop off so expect the bulk of the voting in Ohio to be on Election Day.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Michigan Statewide – 10/30/22
As the statewide average for gas in Michigan drops below $4, we also see the generic ballot flip towards the Democrats, and Governor Whitmer makes some gains on the ballot to +7. Interestingly enough, Whitmer and GOP candidate Tudor Dixon’s image stayed about even. One thing to keep an eye on in the closing week is that among voters who have not yet voted but say that they definitely will. Dixon holds a 50% / 45% (+5%) lead but falls behind by 10 points down 39% / 49% among those who say they probably will.
Read MoreCampaigns & Elections: Three Questions for Brent Buchanan of Cygnal
First Published in Campaigns & Elections’ CampaignTech October Newsletter The following interview is from Campaigns & Elections’ CampaignTech Newsletter. Discover more on Campaigns & Elections on their website. Brent Buchanan is the founder and CEO of Cygnal, a Republican survey research firm. We spoke about the importance of multimodal polling in a busy election cycle, how […]
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 10/29/22
Republicans moved up a point on the generic ballot while Democrats moved down, and it is back to R+11. There is a question on what moves when the generic ballot moves from poll to poll.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Michigan Statewide – 10/28/22
The gubernatorial race has stayed at a consistent 6-point lead for Governor Whitmer. The Governor has added a little to her image while Dixon has fallen a bit over time, most likely due to the lopsided TV spending in the closing weeks. This is backed by Whitmer’s positive image movement with older voters that you would expect following advertising.
Read MoreCygnal Momentum Tracking Poll: Ohio Statewide – 10/27/22
There has been no movement on the generic ballot and not much shift in the statewide races, but we are now looking at JD Vance up by 5 in the Senate race when he was up by 4 last time. Vance is also keeping pace among the share who have already voted, which is now up to 12.2% of all voters.
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