Florida Statewide Poll: Republicans Hold Firm Leads + Presidential Matchups

WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 20, 2023) – Cygnal, the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firm, released this new poll (conducted Nov. 13-15) of general election voters in Florida. The state favors Republicans as the generic Congressional ballot stands at R+6, and voters are slightly more optimistic about the direction of the state (48% right direction; 44% wrong track). 

Mitch Brown is the lead pollster in Florida and conducted this statewide survey. Below are his top takeaways and analysis. He is available for additional comments and insight. 

Top Five Takeaways 

1. Presidential matchups shakeout like this: Trump v. Biden, Trump leads 48% to 43% with 9% undecided; DeSantis v. Biden, DeSantis leads 46% to 43%, with 11% undecided; Trump (44%) v. Biden (37%) v. RFK, Jr. (11%), Trump’s lead over Biden increases as Biden loses support from key groups to RFK, Jr. (women under 55, college educated women, unaffiliated, and urban dwellers). 

2. Over 9-in-10 voters believe the cost of living has increased a lot over the past two years and 59% believe their personal finances have gotten worse compared to one year ago. 

3. Three-quarters of voters believe that homeowners’ insurance rates have increased over the past few years, and nearly all voters (91%) are concerned with current homeowners’ insurance rates in Florida. 

4. The top three biggest threats to the agricultural industry: rising inflation, cost of labor and/or operating costs (39%), overdevelopment onto farming and agricultural land (32%), destruction from climate change (26%), and labor shortages (22%). 

5. With the frame of a recent damning audit of private prisons, a majority support eliminating private prisons (Republicans lean support +11). 41% support expanding parole opportunities for Florida inmates, and 29% oppose it. Most support comes from the most liberal-leaning groups, while opposition resides strongest among the most conservative groups. 

“Florida may not be the swing state it once was, but it is without a doubt one of the highest profile states and remains a popular place to live, work, and vacation. This is mostly due to the Republican approach to governance and an emphasis on economic growth” said Pollster and Director of Political Strategy Mitch Brown. “Yet, despite the positives across the state, Florida voters remain deeply concerned about inflation and the economy, surging costs of living, and extremely high insurance rates. Two of those issues Republicans can work to directly improve but it remains unclear how they’ll tackle the insurance rates debacle with a ‘small government’ approach. Our poll also looked an array of statewide issues, including threats to its agricultural industry, the elimination of private prisons, and the impact of banning sexually explicit books in schools – all of which show interesting numbers among slices of the electorate.”