WASHINGTON, D.C. (March 9, 2026) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following monthly National Voter Trends (NVT) poll (conducted Mar. 3-4) of 1,500 likely general election voters.
Data vs. Dogma:
“Corporate America has spent years assuming that political friendliness from Republican voters translates into consumer trust. It does not, and this data articulates a serious underlying problem,” said Cygnal Founder and CEO Brent Buchanan. “When 80% of your own base says corporations are in it for themselves and when even the wealthiest Americans have written off corporate stated motives, that’s a structural collapse of institutional credibility. The companies that figure this out first and get ahead of it will have a decisive advantage. The ones that keep lobbying their way through it are going to find the ground has shifted permanently underneath them.”
Our Pollsters’ Top Five:
American Dream + Hispanic Optimism: Voters now say the American Dream is still alive by a 6-point margin, (51% to 45%) a 14-point net positive swing since August 2025. The rebound is driven by Republicans, women over 55, and most notably, Hispanic voters, who shifted 29 net points more likely to view the American Dream as alive compared to August. Voters who watched Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address live believe the Dream is alive by a 12-point margin, double the topline result. Independents who consider themselves moderate or conservative are 23 net points more likely to view the Dream as alive, compared to just 1 point among liberal Independents.
“The Hispanic shift on the American Dream is one of the most significant and underreported data points in this poll,” said Principal and Pollster Alex Tarascio. “A 29-point net swing toward optimism in seven months is not a blip, but part of a steady realignment in how Hispanic voters see their economic future under this administration. When you pair that with 51 percent of Hispanics supporting the SAVE Act, this idea of Hispanic voters as a narrow Democratic constituency focused only on immigration is decades out of date. They’re proud Americans who believe in hard work, fairness, and earning success. Republicans who speak directly and authentically to Hispanic economic optimism have a real opening in the midterms.“
DOGE is Still a Winning Issue, Democrats are on the Wrong Side: Support for DOGE’s efforts to cut wasteful federal spending stands at 71 percent overall, including 9-point net support among Democrats and a 44-point net margin among Independents. Even moderates support DOGE cuts by a 46-point margin. When voters learn that Democrats in Congress voted against spending cuts, the generic congressional ballot narrows to a 46-46 tie after a net 4-point boost for the Republican candidate. Among moderates, the ballot moves 6 net points toward the generic Republican. Among swing voters, the shift is 9 net points.
“Democrats voting against spending cuts while holding up DHS funding is the kind of contrast that moves real votes with real people,” said Buchanan. “The DOGE mission is still wildly popular and should be seen as a permission structure for Republicans to go on offense with moderates and swing voters who are otherwise drifting leftward. Seventy-one percent support, 9-point net support among Democrats, and a ballot swing to a dead tie when the contrast is made explicit. Any Republican candidate not running on this in 2026 is leaving points off the board.“
The SAVE Act is the Best Wedge Issue: Americans broadly support the SAVE Act by a 20-point margin (58% to 38%). Support is strong among Independents at a 15-point margin, and even 24 percent of Democrats back the legislation, making opposition narrower than on most partisan issues. Hispanic voters support the SAVE Act by 9 net points, cutting directly against the Democratic assumption that Hispanic voters oppose election integrity measures. Among undecided voters on the generic congressional ballot, support for the SAVE Act hits 67 percent, making it the single most effective persuasion issue for Republicans with the voters who will decide 2026.
SOTU Consumption Mode Determined Perception: How voters encountered Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address determined entirely how they felt about it. The 40 percent of voters who watched it live viewed it net-positively by a 14-point margin. The majority who saw, read, or heard about it secondhand through news coverage and commentary viewed it net-negatively by a 55 to 23 percent margin. Among those who engaged directly with the SOTU in any form, the generic ballot sits at a 48-48 tie, compared to a D+34 margin among those who were not exposed at all proving the reach gap is driven by self-selection and not a persuasion failure.
“The SOTU data is a flashing warning light for how Republicans communicate between now and November,” said Buchanan. “Trump won the room with people who watched live. The media then handed a net-negative reframe to everyone else. Voters who rely on Facebook, podcasts, talk radio, and YouTube, all platforms Trump dominated in 2024, viewed the speech net-negatively by 5 points despite self-identifying 11 points more Republican than Democrat. Those are our voters consuming content that is working against us. It is time for the President and every Republican candidate to get back on the platforms where their coalition actually consumes information.“
Data Nuggets:
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Led by CEO and pollster Brent Buchanan, author of America’s Emotional Divide, Cygnal is an award-winning international public opinion and predictive analytics firm that has revolutionized the polling industry with multi-mode polling, message mapping, and emotional analytics. Recognized as the #1 private pollster by the Silver Bulletin and The New York Times, the firm boasts an impressive 95 percent accuracy rating in the 2024 election cycle. With experience in all 50 U.S. states and over 20 countries, Cygnal has strategically guided over 3,100 campaigns and conducted more than 4,800 polls. Its client roster includes high-profile figures such as Governors Greg Abbott and Brian Kemp, Senator Markwayne Mullin, along with numerous other Members of Congress, state legislators, caucuses, corporations, and trade associations, solidifying Cygnal as a clear leader in political polling and analytics.