WASHINGTON, D.C. (Dec. 15, 2025) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released this monthly National Voter Trends (NVT) poll (conducted Dec. 5-7) of 1,500 likely general election voters.
Data vs. Dogma: as Washington descends into an esoteric battle about the legality of sinking un-flagged narco-terrorists’ drug boats in international waters while the news media enflames the debate, our data shows voters support Trump’s use of military force against Venezuelan drug smugglers by a 19-point margin (57-38), with 40 percent saying they are strongly supportive.
“The Venezuelan drug boat situation offers a mountain of inside-the-beltway machinations for media savvy so-called experts to chew on regarding the already misreported details of these strikes,” said Nick Weinstein, principal and pollster at Cygnal. “But the reality is that voters easily connect President Trump’s actions to the way they expect him to deal with terrorists and cartels. Voters see bad guys running drugs getting blown up with notable ease by our military – it’s really that simple and our data confirms that to be true across large swaths of the electorate and even partisan lines. Trump knows the folks are with him on this – and why the dogma just doesn’t match the data here.”
Our Pollsters’ Top Five:
Affordability vs. everything else: voters say every single monthly household bill has gone up versus this time a year go while nearly half (46%) said they plan to spend less on the holidays this year. Working class folks (+3), Hispanics (+7), and younger voters (+3), three key components of the Trump coalition, are all moving sharply on the affordability issue. Voters say all these core categories like groceries/food (82%), housing (68%), utilities (78%), health insurance (71%), and healthcare (69%) have gone up.
“Republicans need to empathetically connect with voters on this using plain language. When you look at this new data and consider the fact that voters are two times more likely to think President Trump is more focused on foreign affairs than on domestic issues, it’s not a coincidence why 46 percent say his time is better spent on matters at home,” said Brent Buchanan, CEO and pollster at Cygnal, and author of the newly released Amazon best-seller, America’s Emotional Divide. “After an unprecedented pace during his first year of his second term, the President is rounding out the year with a recovered image meaning it’s a perfect time to get aggressive on the affordability front.”
Housing squeeze: as noted above, housing costs are one of the top components of how voters assess affordability – and those costs are squeezing everyone’s wallets. Sixty-three percent of voters say these costs are the source of moderate to extreme financial pressure in their lives. Renters or aspirational owners (those who rent but want to own a home) as well as women under age 55 are most likely to say the pressure is extreme.
Included in the survey was an open-ended question asked of “aspirational homeowners” asking them why they don’t own a home:
Trump image recovers: the President has halted a three-month slide on his image numbers by gaining four points since November. These gains are broad across every demographic and especially with swing voters who view Trump six points better than last month. Better still were non-college voters who flipped back to Trump’s column (+10 net) since last month.
National vibe shift: another positive number in Trump’s column this month, voters’ view of the country’s general direction improved five points since last month ahead of Thanksgiving. Some more good news among Republicans who saw a +12 shift among non-college voters, even as those aspirational homebuyers mentioned earlier are +24 net more likely to think the country is on the wrong track due to housing related costs.
“This is a positive sign for Trump. As the kind of communicator he is on these issues, he can speak to both of these audiences and couch it in an affordability theme that connects to the work his administration is still pursuing,” said Buchanan. “He’s restarting his rally-style events this week, so I suspect we’ll see more of his best in those forums and settings with his base, too.”
Obamacare subsidies: voters affirm they’re accustomed to the covid-era Obamacare subsidies and moved beyond partisan expectations about their existence to preferring the avoidance of immediate pain in the form of premium spikes, etc.
“Based on this month’s data, Trump’s more pragmatic approach wins the day when he talks about providing some wiggle room on extensions as a way to get something meaningful done,” said Buchanan. “There’s a satisfying feeling about connecting something people want, less money spent on healthcare, and increasing certainty about costs, meaning that healthcare spending is lessened as an overall concern. Trump has an advantage here.”
Press Contact: Ryan Shucard, ryansh @ cygn.al
Full NVT deck and downloadable PDF.
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Led by CEO and pollster Brent Buchanan, author of America’s Emotional Divide, Cygnal is an award-winning international public opinion and predictive analytics firm that has revolutionized the polling industry with multi-mode polling, message mapping, and emotional analytics. Recognized as the #1 private pollster by the Silver Bulletin and The New York Times, the firm boasts an impressive 95 percent accuracy rating in the 2024 election cycle. With experience in all 50 U.S. states and over 20 countries, Cygnal has strategically guided over 3,000 campaigns and conducted more than 4,500 polls. Its client roster includes high-profile figures such as Governors Greg Abbott and Brian Kemp, Senator Markwayne Mullin, along with numerous other Members of Congress, state legislators, caucuses, corporations, and trade associations, solidifying Cygnal as a clear leader in political polling and analytics.