WASHINGTON, D.C. (October 15, 2025) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following monthly National Voter Trends (NVT) poll (conducted Oct. 7-8) of 1,500 likely general election voters.
Data vs. Dogma: in the wake of Charlie Kirk’s assassination last month and a string of ongoing political violence, the dogma of “both sides do it” (engage in political violence) became the prevailing talking point across news media. But this data shows only 29 percent of Democrats see an off-ramp to rising political violence compared to 40 percent of Republicans who, for once, are more idealistic. For the issue du juor (obstructing ICE raids, which we get to more below) 42 percent of liberals said it was acceptable to go beyond peaceful protest even if that meant breaking the law. The number jumps to 60 percent of liberals under the age of 30.
Our Pollsters’ Top Five:
New Issues Emerging: This is the first time this decade, or about the time of Trump’s entrance into American political life, the top issue has not been inflation and the economy or immigration and border security. “Threats to democracy” (21%) is now the top priority in voters’ minds. Healthcare jumped three points – nearly doubling among non-college educated voters – as government shutdown coverage resurfaces the Obamacare subsidies debate.
“For the better part of a decade, inflation and the economy have been the number one issue, with a brief stint of illegal immigration in the top position driven entirely by Trump’s constant messaging on the issue,” said Senior Partner and Pollster, Chris Lane. “It’s been that way for the last three to four years but now ‘threats democracy’ has become the top concern followed by the economy, immigration, and then healthcare in fourth. Amid a government shutdown and the high-tempo offensive style of Trump’s White House, now is the time to refocus on the economic, real-world impact of Democrats’ positions on healthcare and immigration. Threats to democracy is practically synonymous with Trump Derangement Syndrome, so if those other top two issues, the economy and healthcare can be wrestled back as Republican winners, 2026 can go our way just as it did the last two cycles.”
Schumer Shutdown 2.0: while all major figures from both partis saw dips in their images amid the government shutdown (Schumer +2 unfavorable, Jeffries +4 unfavorable), by a nearly 2:1 margin, 60 percent voters say the current government shutdown is just being used as a strategic tool to advance a political agenda.
Judas Priest? “Breaking the Law” could be the Democratic theme song these days as young Democrats aged 18-44 are +15 on breaking the law to oppose ICE, while Democrats older than 45 are –42 showing how extremely frustrated young Democrats are with their party leadership.
“Liberals are shockingly okay with breaking the law to go against government action they don’t agree with, like ICE raids,” said Pollster and Cygnal President, Brent Buchanan. “They’re also the highest ideological group (89%) to say the public discourse is worse off than it was several years ago and the group most likely to believe political violence will escalate in future. If that’s not only an affirmation of the Left’s willingness to accept behavior antithetical to American values, but also an acceptance of the consequences and outcomes of those behaviors. More importantly, this accentuates the fact that one side of America’s political spectrum, whether directly engaged in the behaviors or not, now openly accepts breaking laws if it means advancing their political agenda. Considering their justification of illegal immigration and insistence that it’s not a criminal act if the act is desperate, this might not be such a surprise.”
Black to the Future: Black voters were the only major demographic (+9) to say that they would prefer time traveling into the future versus the past, if given the option. Even though most of the political spectrum preferred the past, it was voters who viewed the current direction of America positively whom over-indexed (+36 net) on preferring to travel back in time. Voters who supported Kamala Harris in 2024 were oddly the most indecisive with 25 percent saying they were unsure about either time travel option.
MAHA Momentum: though the movement’s messenger, RFK Jr., has seen dip in his image (-5), overall support for the policy agenda and mission of challenging the status quo remains incredibly strong (74%). Even among the Democratic base, MAHA’s support stands at 55 percent, with 68 percent support among moderates.