WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 13, 2025) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following monthly National Voter Trends (NVT) poll(conducted May 6-8) of 1,5000 likely midterm general election voters.
“Right now, voters trust Republicans more on the central issues like inflation and immigration, and the Democrat Party’s brand is at a low point. It is clear that key voter groups feel like Congressional Democrats aren’t speaking to their priorities. Forty-three percent of swing voters say inflation or government spending and waste should be the top priority for Congress, while only eight percent of swing voters think Congress should be focused on threats to democracy,” said Pollster John Rogers. “Democrats aren’t connecting with the average voter. ‘Fighting oligarchy’ is an abstraction, arguing for open borders is a losing message across the board, and neither addresses inflation and the economy.”
“Democrats are never going to be able to sell their positions or their approach to the American people in the same way as President Trump,” said Pollster and Cygnal President, Brent Buchanan. “When you look at this data, it’s clear Trump maintains the edge over Democrats on all the top issues. He demonstrates this almost daily to voters and while congressional Republicans have a slight edge as well, the clock is ticking to codify many of Trump’s major agenda items as summer approaches – they should pedal to the metal and keep going.”
Here are Rogers’s top takeaways:
First 100 Days: despite complete saturation of negative news coverage (92%), President Trump and Congressional Republicans outpace Democrats’ favorability/trust maintaining an edge on multiple key issues – on the economy (R+2), cost of living (R+2), illegal immigration (R+25), crime and public safety (R+13), cutting waste/spending (R+18), and foreign affairs (R+2). Married women (8%), union members (10%), and Hispanics (4%) also all swung to the GOP since April.
Voter Optimism: since we began these NVT surveys in June 2021, optimism about the direction of the country is at its highest level (45%) – a net 40 percent swing – which is a sharp contrast to last summer when 71 percent said the country was on the wrong track.
Above All Else: 52 percent of voters said President Trump should focus the most on reducing the costs of living. No other issue comes even half as close with cutting wasteful spending (21%), bringing jobs back to America (18%), securing the border (18%) and deporting dangerous illegals (18%).
Negotiate Everything: 58 percent support President Trump’s attempts to renegotiate trade deals with foreign countries, including 63% of swing voters. Additionally, 48 percent of voters support increasing tariffs on China as a way to force better trading terms for the United States.
AOC vs. Schumer: fresh off the “Fighting Oligarchy” tour, AOC’s favorables (39% fav., 40% unfav.) versus that of Senator Chuck Schumer’s (33% fav., 49% unfav.) highlight not just a potential contentious Democratic primary battle for the senator’s seat in 2026, but accentuated ideological battles within the party. Add in that former President Obama, now eight years removed from office, is still seen as the leader (13%) of the Democratic Party, dominating all others like Schumer (10%), Harris (7%), Booker (6%), AOC (5%), and Jeffries (5%) – with most voters (33%) saying they were unsure of who the leader is.
Maryland Man: more voters see Kilmar Abrego Garcia as an illegal immigrant, criminal, and suspected MS-13 gang member who was rightfully deported (47%) versus a “Maryland man”, husband, and father who should be returned to the United States (39%) highlighting the partisan divides on illegal immigration and how mainstream media has spun the narratives surrounding this case.
DOGE Disconnect: 21 percent of voters want President Trump to focus on cutting government spending while DOGE, the entity largely in charge of this endeavor, has an underwater image of 48 unfavorable versus 44 percent favorable. This represents a messaging opportunity for the White House to showcase DOGE’s right-sizing of the federal government.
NPR, No Longer: 46 percent of voters oppose cutting federal funding to NPR and PBS versus 35 percent who support those cuts. Interestingly, unmarried men and married women both oppose proposed cuts (45%).
The Courts: 52% say the federal courts’ injunctions against the Trump administration represent impartial oversight, while 40% think the courts are trying to undermine the White House. Most voter groups are fine with the Trump admin aggressively pressing its case in court, but most voters think the federal courts have a legitimate role to play as umpires in the political arena.