WASHINGTON, D.C. (July 9, 2025) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following monthly National Voter Trends (NVT) poll (conducted July 1-2) of 1,500 likely 2026 midterm election voters.
Data vs. Dogma
Here are two prevailing narratives across the news and social media landscape that don’t square with the latest data:
- DOGMA: Broad Opposition to ICE Raids: Voters are split about the causes of the recent Los Angeles protests turned riots (40% federal agents, 37% protest agitators)
DATA: However, 50 percent of voters support ICE’s overall mission to remove illegal immigrants from the United States. More importantly, Hispanic voters are now 11 points more likely to support deportation than two months ago.
- DOGMA: Families are Fractured: Experts and pundits have long warned about the negative effects of modern life on the family unit offering regular family dinners as a simple remedy.
DATA: Turns out, 35 percent of American families eat dinner with one another everyday – and 20 percent reporting they eat together 5-6 days per week. Republicans are 10-points more likely than Democrats to have family dinners 5-7 days per week.
Top 5 Takeaways from this NVT:
Spike Alert: For the first time since September 2022, threats to democracy (18%) has overtaken inflation and the economy (17%) as the top priority among likely voters. This marks an 18-point drop for concerns about inflation/economy since April. This shift is mostly driven by Democrats (-15 since June), younger voters (-17), and non-white voters (-11).
Immune to Changing Circumstances: 78 percent of voters who switched to Trump in 2024 or were new Trump voters said that he keeps his promises better than most politicians. Half of all voters agree, and 38 percent said Trump keeps his campaign promises “much better than most.”
“Fictional Frank Underwood once opined that promises are immune to changing circumstances. Donald Trump is the only president is recent memory who not only understands this but also uses it as the ramrod for his agenda,” said Pollster and Cygnal President, Brent Buchanan. “Trump was able to not only attract first time voters in 2024 but also convert some would-be Harris voters, and when you look at this data, there’s little question that among his most attractive qualities is voters’ beliefs that he keeps his promises from the campaign and could care less about what the DC establishments thinks about enacting his agenda – for Trump, it really is all about the voters and proving he’ll do what he set out to.”
Tale of Two Republics – CA vs. TX: Voters prefer Texas as a national model over California, except on abortion, which ranks lowest (1%) in top priorities. Even on gun control, Texas (32%) outranks California (27%) as well as on crime and public safety (TX-35% to CA-16%)
“Democrats remain without a message or a messenger, and Kamala Harris isn’t coming to the rescue any time soon,” said Pollster and Principal, Nick Weinstein. “Typically, we see candidates’ image recover after some time away from the limelight but as Harris mulls her political future with a potential run for California Governor, she’s still seen more negatively, by eight points, than President Trump. Assuming she’s the next champion of California’s model of governance, it’s worth noting our latest national data also shows that on nearly every key issue, voters prefer the Texas model with 30 percent of Democrats living there saying it’s far better for inflation and the cost of living. Democrats insist California is their model for the nation, but voters clearly aren’t buying it.”
Karens on ICE: As we noted above, prevailing narratives don’t align with where voters are on issues surrounding illegal immigration. But who are the voters most apoplectic about the recent ICE raids? While voters are split overall, it’s mostly women – specifically, older women moved from +32 net on generic deportation to net-even while non-college educated women moved from +26 net to net-even.
Lions and Hammers: The Israeli-led Operation Rising Lion to destroy Iran’s terrorist apparatus and deter offensive attacks had 50 percent overall support driven largely by men (+29 net justified). The American-led Operation Midnight Hammer had more overall support (57%) with a quarter of Democrats saying the attack was justified. Swing voters also agree (58-32 in favor). Depending on voters’ cable news preferences, the cause of the Israel-Iran conflict is drastically different. If you watch MSNBC, it’s Israel’s fault (+9%) but if you watch Fox News, it’s because of Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions (+15%).