WASHINGTON, D.C. (September 9, 2025) – Cygnal, the nation’s most accurate private polling firm, released the following monthly National Voter Trends (NVT) poll (conducted Sept. 2-3) of 1,500 likely general election voters.
Data vs. Dogma
Here are two prevailing narratives across the news and social media landscape that DO NOT square with the latest data:
DOGMA: Crime and public safety concerns are overblown by the Trump Administration and Black voters don’t support federally-backed crackdowns across America’s cities.
-vs-
DATA: Voters prefer outcome over process and agree with President Trump’s characterization of American cities as “overtaken by violent gangs and criminals” by 11 points. Swing voters (+22) and urban voters (+8) agree. Trump’s legal takeover of Washington DC’s metro police force is +33 supported by Black voters, yet overall, most voters prefer these actions to be characterized as “assistance for law enforcement” rather than a “takeover” highlighting the nuance in federal action in the nation’s capital versus other crime-plagued cities like Chicago or Baltimore.
DOGMA: Republicans won’t support government ownership of private companies.
-vs-
DATA: In a somewhat shocking finding, indicative of the recent populist realignment, a plurality of Republicans (44% support vs. 36% oppose) the federal government taking a stake in private companies. When framed as vital to protecting national interests, Trump’s base is even more receptive to this kind of economic nationalism – and overall voter support surges (including Democrats (+40 net), liberals (+28), and swing voters (+50)) when informed about the usage of the Biden-era CHIPS program to purchase a multibillion-dollar government stake in Intel.
“Donald Trump is a political inflection point, and this new data is another indicator of how far he has taken the Republican Party away from its decades-long stint at the elitist country club,” said Pollster and Cygnal President Brent Buchanan. “The fact that a plurality of Republicans support a government stake in a private company like Intel is an about-face from President Obama’s forays into industry bailouts. It means that President Trump has solidified the ethos of the GOP to be less focused on tradition and orthodoxy in favor of long overdue results-oriented counterbalances to a radical and out-of-touch leftwing agenda. Trump has succeeded in moving the GOP entirely to a ‘ends justify the means’ mentality of governance.”
Top 5 Takeaways from this NVT:
Parental and reproductive concerns: it’s back-to-school season and a quarter of parents of PreK-12 students say political interference (24%) in their children’s education is the issue they are most concerned with. Physical safety and security are cited by 26 percent of parents, followed by curriculum content (13%) and academic performance (12%), with AI, and resourcing issues as tertiary concerns. Democrats (37%) are more concerned than Republicans (22%) about political interference while swing voters prioritize student safety. As the U.S. inches toward dropping below the repopulation number, 72 percent believe the ideal number of children is 2 or more.
Foreign and domestic: 2026 midterm election season is underway, and swing voters say President Trump should focus more on domestic issues than international affairs (by a +4 margin). Overall, 58 percent of voters agree with only 13 percent thinking Trump’s focus should remain more internationally.
Edge maintenance: despite a slight increase in pessimism about the direction of the country and worsening perceptions about the impact of inflation, the GOP maintains an edge over Democrats with voters’ trust on every major issue area. As off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia set the stage for the 2026 midterms, both parties have made gains along diploma and community type divides – Republicans remain resilient among non-college educated voters (shifting +12 since May) while Democrats make gains among the college-educated. Urban and rural voters both shifted +4 net toward a generic GOP in the last month, while suburban voters moved +6 net toward a generic Democrat.
“As Bernie Sanders, AOC, and Zohran Mamdani represent the face of the political left, voters continue to trust Republicans more than Democrats on cost-of-living and inflation issues,” said Pollster and Senior Partner, John Rogers. “Swing voters trust Republicans by a +7 margin over Democrats on the economy and jobs, which is something that is going to keep Chuck Schumer up at night as the mid-term kicks into high gear.”
Party trust by top issues:
- Economy and jobs (R+3)
- Costs of living (R+3)
- Illegal immigration and border security (R+22)
- Crime and public safety (R+16)
- Cutting wasteful government spending (R+17)
- Foreign affairs (R+4)
Trans as an illness: views on transgenderism remain split with 42 percent of voters saying they believe it is a mental illness while 44 percent say it’s a natural variation of human identity. The belief that it’s natural is driven mostly by women (+23) under age 55. Men and swing voters (+3) said being transgender is a mental illness.
Two-state illusion: partisanship, age, and race define attitudes on the Israel–Hamas conflict and the potential of a two-state solution. Fifty-six percent of voters either oppose or are unsure about a two-state solution while 43 percent support it, mostly driven by Democrats (+46), voters under 55 (+24), college‑educated (+26), urban (+29), and non‑white (+22). But among voters who want Trump to focus less on international affairs and more on domestic issues (58%), support for a two‑state solution shrinks by 6 net points.