WASHINGTON, D.C. (October 31, 2024) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following national poll (conducted Oct. 24-26) of 1,507 likely general election voters.
“Republican enthusiasm has increased by 10 points this month, and while there are more Republicans who are voting early, it’s important to not read too much into it,” said Pollster and Cygnal President, Brent Buchanan. “Harris managed to increase her favorable image significantly in her first month, in large part due to glowing media coverage, but nothing about this election has been normal – meaning its outcome probably won’t be normal either. A focus on male voters, especially young men, is a new phenomenon in elections, and how this group turns out compared to non-college and college-educated women could have a noticeable impact.”
“This election shows the politically precarious position we’re in as a country where traditional labels like conservative or liberal are still taking on new meanings,” said Pollster and VP of Polling, Brock McCleary. “Looking at voting style, Republicans now favor candidates who push for shaking up the system whereas Democrats tend to favor reform types of candidates. But with less than a week until Election Day, the gender and educational gaps among the electorate are significant and the voters who are hardest to reach, those who are younger, working class and less educated, will be the ones who decide this election.”
Key Takeaways:
Presidential Race: D+1; Harris (46%), Trump (45%), third-party (6%), undecided (3%)
Predicted Winner: R+4; Trump (44%), Harris (41%), unsure (16%)
Early Voting: already voted (34%) – Democrats (40%), Independents (33%), Republicans (29%)
Top Issues: inflation and the economy (32%); illegal immigration (19%); threats to democracy (14%); abortion (9%); healthcare (7%)
Party More Extreme: Democratic (44%); Republican (41%); both (11%); unsure (4%)
State Election Integrity: confident (72%); not confident (25%); unsure (3%)
National Election Integrity: confident (59%); not confident (38%); unsure (3%)
Harris = Biden: somewhat (26%); fully (20%); slightly (19%); mostly (17%); not at all (14%)
News Sources: cable news (42%); national broadcast TV (36%); local TV news (27%); YouTube (22%); other websites (20%); Facebook (17%); newspapers (16%).