High number of undecided voters will affect turnout, mostly negatively
A poll conducted this week by Cygnal, a Montgomery-based political strategy, research, media, and public relations firm, indicates that even the highest propensity Republican primary voters are highly undecided in the statewide runoff elections for Secretary of State, Public Service Commission Place 2, and Auditor. Florida Governor Jeb Bush led the crowded field of 2016 GOP presidential aspirants.
The phone survey was conducted on July 7-8 with 821 known Republican primary voters, giving the flash poll a margin of error of +/- 3.42%. Cygnal is unaffiliated with any of the campaigns or outside groups in any of the race.
“It is no surprise to see such high undecided numbers in the three statewide Republican runoff races,” said Managing Partner Brent Buchanan. “No one has spent any real money, and there is a lack of big ticket races, like the governor’s race in 2010, to draw people back out the polls. The only exception is the Sixth Congressional district, which will make the Birmingham area a disproportionate share of the statewide vote.”
“Although we pegged turnout around 314,000, I would not be surprised if it dips below 300,000 just because of the low interest level,” said VP of Data & Strategy Cory Brown. “Our survey data combined with historical voter data shows that as turnout decreases, the age of the voter skews older, and the impact of this on each race can be seen in the crosstabs.”
John Merrill leads Reese McKinney for Secretary of State 24.2% – 23.0%. Chip Beeker is ahead of incumbent PSC member Terry Dunn 30.8% – 22.4%. In the Auditor’s race, Jim Zeigler sits 9 points ahead of Dale Peterson (30.5% – 21.5%). For 2016 presidential hopefuls, Jeb Bush is out front at 19.8%, followed by Ben Carson at 12.6% and Rand Paul at 10.5%.