This was both a turnout and a realignment election.
On Election Day, Cygnal conducted a massive, multi-modal national exit poll of 9,000 voters. We found this was very much a realignment election, driven by changes in key generational and racial groups. The Republican Party is increasingly multi-racial and working class, with strong support among married adults; the Democratic Party is increasingly a coalition of college-educated and older voters.
Hispanic voters shifted 24 points to the right, from D+33 in 2020 to D+9. Trump won Hispanic men by R+1 compared to losing them by D+23 last election. He shifted Hispanic women from D+39 to D+16. African-American voters also shifted right by 16 points (D+75 to D+59). This is more driven by black men (D+60 to D+38) than black women (D+81 to D+78).
Generationally, Gen X swung hardest right. Those aged 45 –64 were R+1 in 2020, and moved to R+13 for Trump. Gen Z also shifted right from D+24 to D+16. Men under age 30 were R+10.
In the six swing states that have fully reported (GA, NC, PA, MI, WI & NV), Trump’s raw votes were 6% higher than 2020, peaking in Georgia (+8%) and Nevada (+9%). Harris’ raw votes compared to Biden’s in 2020 were down 1%. Comparing cumulative raw votes in these states, Harris received 76k fewer votes, and Trump received 757k more votes – a net 833k difference.
Democratic votes dropped, while Republican votes grew; this was even more noticeable in red and blue states, somewhat in the swing states.
Looking at four red states (FL, TX, IA & MO), Harris received 9% fewer votes than Biden in 2020. Inversely, Trump received 7% more votes than in 2020. In just these four red states, Trump increased his raw vote margin from 1.6mil to 3.8mil – a 2.2mil vote increase.
The trend continues in the blue states. By looking at four blue states (DE, CT, NM & VT) that have fully reported, Harris received 6% fewer votes than 2020, while Trump received 4% more votes.
Democrats are growing more dependent on the coastal elites. Urban areas gave Harris her only community-type growth from D+22 to D+29. On the other end, the Rurals doubled their margin for Trump (R+15 to R+31). The Suburbs stayed put at D+2.
The diploma divide deepened, but it differed by race.
Trump slipped with college-educated voters, as they went from D+12 in 2020 to D+15 this year. It was mostly driven by white college voters, which moved left from D+3 to D+9. Voters of color with a college degree moved slightly right (D+43 to D+40).
The bigger shift that was most damning for Democrats was how non-college-educated voters of all races repudiated the left by voting much more for Republicans. In 2020, Trump won this crucial voter group by R+2. This year, Trump dominated them (R+16). The story here is that all the positive movement was among NON-WHITE, non-college voters. This group shifted right by 19 points (D+46 to D+27). White non-college voters slipped a bit for Trump (R+35 to R+33).
Trump secured the election through early in-person voting.
Democrats continued to dominate vote-by-mail (Harris+31), but early in-person voters were strongly for Trump by 6 points. Election Day voters gave Trump a 3-point edge.
Late deciders broke for Trump.
Men were the late deciders in this race, and they swung things Trump’s way. 9% of voters waited until the final week to decide who to support, and they were overwhelmingly non-college educated.
Issues that drove vote choice were very partisan.
Both sides had strong turnout issues – abortion and threats to democracy (total 40%) for Democrats and inflation / economy and illegal immigration (total 45%) for Republicans. However, Republicans had the edge on partisan-intensity issues that likely drove turnout higher for them.
Where news was consumed was also very partisan, except cable news which was the most balanced partisan break of all sources on the presidential race.
