WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 20, 2026) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following poll (conducted May 15-18) of 500 likely nonpartisan primary voters.
“Bass is flat, capped out, and carrying the weight of a city voters believe is headed in the wrong direction,” said Founder and CEO, Brent Buchanan. “They’re frustrated by the cost of living, homelessness, and corruption, creating a very real opening for Spencer Pratt. He’s well within striking distance of Bass, whose numbers are saddled with a deeply defined, underwater image. Pratt still has room to consolidate the voters he needs most, especially men, independents, and voters in the Northeast Valley, with a closing message built around public safety, accountability, and his Palisades story.”
- Pratt moves from 22 percent to 25 percent on the informed ballot and pulls even with Bass at 25 percent, while Bass stays flat and 16 percent remain undecided.
- The race is unfolding in a deeply negative environment for the incumbent, with just 30 percent saying Los Angeles is headed in the right direction and 58 percent saying it is on the wrong track.
- Voters’ top concerns are cost of living, homelessness, and city corruption, a stack that gives Pratt an opening to run as the change candidate against the status quo.
- Bass is more underwater than Pratt and has less room to recover, posting a net -20 image with 93 percent name ID, while Pratt sits at net -12 with 28 percent of voters still not fully defined.
- Pratt’s clearest path to clinch the race is through the NE Valley, men, and independents, with Palisades Survivor and public safety as the strongest pro-Pratt messages and crime/homelessness as the clearest Bass contrast.
“Most assume Pratt can’t pull off a win in Los Angeles, but when you look at this data, he has the right mixture of things working in his favor,” said Buchanan. “His story is relatable, and he’s running an authentic outsider campaign focused on Angelinos while his opponents try to nationalize the race in the absence of a real record of visible results to run on. Things are worse in L.A., not better, and voters confirmed that in this Cygnal data.”
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Led by CEO and pollster Brent Buchanan, author of America’s Emotional Divide, Cygnal is an award-winning international public opinion and predictive analytics firm that has revolutionized the polling industry with multi-mode polling, message mapping, and emotional analytics. Recognized as the #1 private pollster by the Silver Bulletin and The New York Times, the firm boasts an impressive 95 percent accuracy rating in the 2024 election cycle. With experience in all 50 U.S. states and over 20 countries, Cygnal has strategically guided over 3,100 campaigns and conducted more than 4,800 polls. Its client roster includes high-profile figures such as Governors Greg Abbott and Brian Kemp, along with numerous other Members of Congress, state legislators, caucuses, corporations, and trade associations, solidifying Cygnal as a clear leader in political polling and analytics.
