WASHINGTON, D.C. (February 10, 2026) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following monthly National Voter Trends (NVT) poll (conducted Feb. 3-4) of 1,500 likely general election voters.
Data vs. Dogma: Seventy percent of voters support requiring proof of citizenship through voter ID for federal elections. Media narratives suggest that voter ID requirements are deeply polarizing and represent voter suppression, yet this data tells a fundamentally different story. While the rest of the electorate may not be, it’s telling that Democrats are evenly split on the issue (46-46), further undermining claims that this is a partisan wedge and highlight Democrats’ internal struggles between common-sense and radical ideology.
“Inflation / economy continues to the number one issue for swing voters—and by double-digit margins, swing voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on the economy, jobs, and cost-of-living. The left’s priority is a government shutdown fight over abolishing ICE, the median voter’s priority is continued economic growth and lower costs,” said Pollster and Senior Partner John Rogers.
“Hakeem Jeffries implies voter ID is voter suppression, But when you actually ask voters, 70% of American voters overall, 75% of swing voters, 69% of Hispanics, 56% of Black voters, and even 46% of Democrats support voter ID. It shows Republicans have another winning issue heading into the midterms if they lean into it with confidence,” Rogers continued.
Our Pollsters’ Top Five:
GOP Holds Trust Edge on Every Issue: Republicans maintain a net trust advantage with midterm voters across all six major issue areas tested: illegal immigration and border security (R+13), crime and public safety (R+13), cutting wasteful government spending (R+12), economy and jobs (R+3), foreign affairs (R+1), and cost of living (R+1). While Democrats have narrowed the gap on cost of living climbing from 39 percent in September to 43 percent this month, Republicans still hold the advantage as inflation and economic concerns remain top priorities. These trust margins provide the foundation for Republican midterm messaging, particularly on border security, public safety, and fiscal responsibility, where the GOP’s double-digit leads dwarf Democratic advantages.
“Republicans have the issues environment locked down heading into the midterms, despite the mainstream media narrative,” said Cygnal Founder & CEO Brent Buchanan. “Voters trust the GOP more on literally every major issue, and that will drive turnout and persuasion. The challenge isn’t what we’re saying; it’s how we’re saying it and whether we’re reaching the right voters with the right tone. These trust numbers are a permission structure to go on offense, but only if candidates can authentically connect on affordability, safety, and border security in ways that resonate emotionally with working-class and non-college voters who powered Trump’s coalition.“
MAHA: Support for the Make America Healthy Again agenda now stands at 77 percent (+3 since Oct. 2025), including 65 percent of Democrats, 68 percent of moderates, and 80 percent of younger Republicans. It’s an issue that has its own momentum apart from RFK, Jr. (-4 net image). When voters are informed that a Republican supports the MAHA agenda and a Democrat opposes it, the generic congressional ballot swings from D+3 to R+7 — a 10-point shift to the right on a single issue. MAHA represents one of the most potent persuasion and coalition-building tools available to Republicans, particularly among health-conscious moderates, parents, and younger voters skeptical of corporate influence in food and medicine.
TDS Resurfaces Fears: “Threats to democracy” has jumped from 14 percent in the off-year elections to 21 percent this month, overtaking inflation and cost of living as the top priority. The surge is driven overwhelmingly by Democrats, particularly younger women and younger men. Illegal immigration has also climbed to 15 percent, its highest level since last summer, fueled by Hispanics shifting away from inflation concerns and toward both immigration enforcement and democracy-related anxieties. Meanwhile, healthcare has plummeted from a January high of 15 percent to just 10 percent. Among the GOP electorate (45% of sample), the top issues remain illegal immigration (30%), government spending and waste (23%), and inflation 18%). That’s a stark contrast to Democratic voters (48% of sample), whose priorities are threats to democracy (39%), inflation (20%), and healthcare (15%).
Female Realignments: College-educated women have moved toward Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, while non-college women have shifted left, marking a notable education-based realignment. This crosscurrent comes as Trump’s image gains from the prior two months have been rolled back: he lost ground among non-college men, older men, and non-white voters, including a 9-point drop among Black voters compared to their 2024 presidential support. Among midterm voters who supported Trump in 2024, Republicans have lost vote share with men 55+ (-9), women 55+ (-5), and men under 55 (-4). Hispanics who voted for Trump in 2024 are holding steady in their midterm support. While the generic ballot shifted slightly to D+3, the underlying coalition dynamics reveal vulnerabilities for Republicans among core Trump base segments, particularly working-class and older men.
National Mood Stabilizes as Immigration Enforcement Gains Broad Support: The national mood remains largely unchanged from recent months: “right direction” ticked up one point (now 43%) and “wrong track” dropped one point (now 55%), returning the country direction metric roughly to where it stood in September. On immigration enforcement, voters show strong support for concrete action: a commanding 60 percent support penalizing employers who hire undocumented workers. These findings reinforce data from our recent immigration and deportation polling, which showed consistent public backing for enforcement measures even as the debate intensifies. With illegal immigration now at 15 percent, the highest priority level since last summer, and Republicans holding a R+13 trust advantage on border security, the GOP maintains a structural edge on one of the most salient midterm issues, particularly among swing voters and Hispanics who have shifted their focus from inflation toward immigration concerns.
Data Nuggets:
You can find the PDF deck here and all polls here.
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Led by CEO and pollster Brent Buchanan, author of America’s Emotional Divide, Cygnal is an award-winning international public opinion and predictive analytics firm that has revolutionized the polling industry with multi-mode polling, message mapping, and emotional analytics. Recognized as the #1 private pollster by the Silver Bulletin and The New York Times, the firm boasts an impressive 95 percent accuracy rating in the 2024 election cycle. With experience in all 50 U.S. states and over 20 countries, Cygnal has strategically guided over 3,000 campaigns and conducted more than 4,553 polls. Its client roster includes high-profile figures such as Governors Greg Abbott and Brian Kemp, Senator Markwayne Mullin, along with numerous other Members of Congress, state legislators, caucuses, corporations, and trade associations, solidifying Cygnal as a clear leader in political polling and analytics.