TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (July 20, 2026) — Cygnal released new survey findings from a statewide poll of 500 likely 2026 Florida Republican primary voters (conducted July 12–13). The survey finds an early frontrunner, but also a fluid race shaped by name recognition, regional variation, and a sizable undecided bloc that remains open to movement.
In the Republican primary ballot test, Byron Donalds leads with 43 percent, followed by James Fishback at 12 percent, Jay Collins at 11 percent, and Paul Renner at 2 percent, while 31 percent remain undecided. Our analysis notes the current landscape reflects a divided and largely unfamiliar field, with challengers plus undecideds accounting for 57 percent of the electorate.
“Florida Republicans know some of these names much better than others, and that is a major part of what is driving the early ballot,” said Mitch Brown, Partner and Pollster at Cygnal. “This is an early race with a clear leader, but also a large undecided share with some meaningful room for movement from the lesser-known names as voters learn more about the rest of the field.”
The survey shows candidate image closely tracks ballot standing. Donalds posts 75 percent name ID, compared with 35 percent for Collins, 31 percent for Fishback, and 17 percent for Renner, while large shares of voters still say they have no opinion of or have never heard of the challengers. The poll also finds a defined but unsettled audience still available in the race. Undecided voters skew female, somewhat more moderate than the broader Republican primary electorate, and are especially concentrated in North Florida and the Tampa media market. Their top concerns are pocketbook issues, led by inflation, property taxes, and property insurance.
A generational split is already visible in the field. Donalds performs best with older voters, while Fishback’s support is more concentrated among younger voters, especially younger men. Our data also identifies three major voter groupings in the electorate: Young Populists, Disengaged Moderates, and Establishment Loyalists.
“What stands out here is that familiarity is a major advantage right now, but the unsettled voters are definable, reachable, and focused on practical concerns that matter in everyday life,” Brown said.
Methodology: Cygnal surveyed 500 likely 2026 Florida Republican primary voters statewide July 12–13, 2026. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.38 percentage points.
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Cygnal is an award-winning international public opinion and predictive analytics firm that has revolutionized the polling industry with multi-mode polling, message mapping, and emotional analytics. Recognized as the #1 private pollster by the Silver Bulletin and The New York Times, the firm boasts an impressive 95 percent accuracy rating in the 2024 election cycle. With experience in all 50 U.S. states and over 20 countries, Cygnal has strategically guided over 3,100 campaigns and conducted more than 4,800 polls. Its client roster includes high-profile figures such as Governors Greg Abbott and Brian Kemp, along with numerous other Members of Congress, state legislators, caucuses, corporations, and trade associations, solidifying Cygnal as a clear leader in political polling and analytics.