WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 13, 2026) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released its 2026 midterm post-mortem National Voter Trends (NVT) poll (conducted Nov. 4–5) of 3,000 midterm voters.
The survey finds Republicans lost the middle, and much of that loss was locked in long before Election Day. Republicans sat at 42 percent on the generic ballot in Cygnal’s polling since the summer. That’s where they finished. The other loss was many Republican-leaning voters staying home compared to juiced Democratic-leaning turnout, with Republicans only winning Election Day voters by 1 point, a huge departure from 2024.
“Republicans lost their base as they lost the middle, and they lost those voters a year before anyone cast a ballot,” said Pollster and CEO, Brent Buchanan. “Democrats won the House and Senate as a check on the President rather than a political mandate. But if they take the reins in January chasing investigations and impeachment instead of results, they’ll be working against the 51 percent of voters, including one in five Democrats, who want this Congress to work with the President.”
How It Happened
- A small group of defectors did big damage: Trump 2024 voters who did not vote Republican in the midterms make up four percent of the electorate, but they’re worth about six points of margin. That matches the six percent “leak” to Democrats Cygnal identified in our final pre-election poll. Unlike everyone else, these voters decided late, with 42 percent saying they made up their minds in the final three weeks fo the election.
- Half turnout, half defection: Our survey showed voters backed Democrats by a 13-point margin, and half of that margin came from a more Dem-leaning electorate (Harris+6). The other half came from Trump 2024 voters who switched to Democrat or even third-party candidates.
- It was decided by Labor Day: About two-thirds of voters said they had made up their minds by the holiday and they backed Democrats 61 percent to 39 percent.
- A smaller GOP base held, but the middle walked: Republicans voted for their party’s candidates by 89 points. But it was Independent voters who went Democratic by 30 points. But Independent voters went Democratic by 30 points, up from 14 points in our final pre-election survey
Why It Happened
- Just as he asked, voters made it about Trump: Forty-eight percent said their vote was against the President’s agenda compared to only 19 percent who said they voted for it. Independent voters went 56 percent against his agenda, and more than half of all voters gave him an ‘F’ letter grade for second term, including 67 percent of Independents.
- Voters said “economy” then voted on corruption: Even though inflation and the economy remain the top priority for Congress at 35 percent, the Democratic base cast ballots based on corruption (30%) and democracy (27%), with the economy coming in third at 23 percent. The Trump voters that Republicans lost were economy voters, with 45 percent of them naming it their top agenda item.
- The damage was baked in a year ago: Since the 2024 election, voters moved 15 points, from Republicans (+2) to Democrats (+13), and every major voters group except voters aged 55-64 moved toward the Democrats. Independents’ support for the GOP had already fallen from 43 percent to 29 percent by September of last year.
- Even Republicans graded Trump softly: Supporting Trump (11%) was the least common of the five reasons why Republicans supported the GOP and one-in-five said they’d vote Republican in spite of Trump. Asked about a letter grade for Trump, 30 percent gave him an ‘A’ and 37 percent gave him a ‘B’ which is a soft assessment for the party’s own president.
- Three moods defining one electorate: Democrats say they feel relief at having a check on Trump while Republicans feel mostly fear of Democratic control and more impeachment efforts. But the voters who flipped wanted change and punished Republicans for failing to deliver, and their mood is closer to indifference.
“When you look at who actually decided this election, it wasn’t a late wave of enthusiastic Democrats rushing to the polls,” said Buchanan. “Two-thirds of voters had made up their minds by Labor Day, and the late deciders actually leaned Republican. The late-breaking damage came from a small group of Trump 2024 voters who wanted lower prices and results. They didn’t get them, so they walked to the other side. That’s a delivery problem, not an ideological one, and the good news for the GOP is that delivery problems can be fixed. Democrats, on the other hand, take control of Congress in January without a leader or a mandate voters can name, and that’s a much harder problem to solve.”
What’s Next
- A GOP comeback is policy over ideology: When asked what would win back the voters who defected from the GOP, 16 percent want the GOP to lead with fixing the economy and lowering prices while 15 percent want more listening and effort to help working class folks. A close third, 13 percent, said ending the war with Iran. Caution tape: 15 percent said nothing will bring them back.
- Democrats won without a leader or a mandate: Democrats in Congress remain underwater at a –8 net favorability – much better than Republicans in Congress at -29 – and only 39 percent of their voters say their vote was mostly in support of their party. When asked who leads the Democratic Party, no clear name emerges with 38 percent naming no one or saying they are unsure. AOC tops the list at a meager eight percent. And 51 percent of voters want congress to with President Trump, even if that means compromising with he and the GOP, including 21 percent of Democrats.
- Republicans want Trump’s policies sans his style: Forty-five percent of voters say Trump should have no influence over the GOP going forward, which is up eight points from just late October. But 77 percent of Republicans want him to keep at least some influence, and they prefer keeping Trump’s policies with a different style over keeping both, 46 percent to 23 percent.
- The 2028 presidential races are wide open: On the GOP side, Marco Rubio leads JD Vance 34 percent to 31 percent, with Ron DeSantis a distant third place at 14 percent. Traditional Republicans, the larger wing of the party, prefer Rubio (36%) to vance (30%). On the Democratic side, Pete Buttigieg and AOC are tied at 18 percent with Kamala Harris a closer third with 14 percent. Gavin Newsom trails at 12 percent, and the more notable number is the 21 percent who are unsure, echoing the confusion about who leads the party.
- Corporate America is on notice: Voters want the new Congress to crack down on health insurance companies (60%), AI companies (52%), pharmaceutical companies (52%), data centers (51%), and oil and gas companies (48%). Democrats drive most of that demand, especially on AI companies and data centers (69% Dems, 29% GOP). Healthcare is a unique exception in that Republicans (63%) want action taken on insurers and pharma.
“The companies that wait until the first Democrat-led hearing on their sector to engage will be stuck playing defense, in D.C. and in the court of public opinion, for years,” said Buchanan. “Voters elected Democrats who intend to go after health insurance companies, AI and data center developers, and pharma. It’s no longer conjecture to say corporate America is in for a bumpy ride, and companies better learn how to talk to and emotionally connect with voters, not just hire lobbyists.”
Data Nuggets:
- No late Democratic wave: Voters who decided in October or later broke Republican, 54 percent to 46 percent, and last-week deciders went Republican by 28 points.
- Early and mail votes carried the margin: Election Day voters split nearly even (R+1), while early in-person voters went Democratic by 12 points, absentee mail by 25, and drop-box returns by 36.
- GOP morale collapsed overnight: Republicans now say the country is headed in the right direction fell from 70 percent to 40 percent in two weeks.
- Republicans lost the airwaves on their best issue: Immigration ad recall fell from 63 percent in 2024 to 23 percent, while inflation ads reached 55 percent of voters and gas price ads 45 percent.
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Led by CEO and pollster Brent Buchanan, author of America’s Emotional Divide, Cygnal is an award-winning international public opinion and predictive analytics firm that has revolutionized the polling industry with multi-mode polling, message mapping, and emotional analytics. Recognized as the #1 private pollster by the Silver Bulletin and The New York Times, the firm boasts an impressive 95 percent accuracy rating in the 2024 election cycle. With experience in all 50 U.S. states and over 20 countries, Cygnal has strategically guided over 3,200 campaigns and conducted more than 5,100 polls. Its client roster includes high-profile figures such as Governors Greg Abbott and Brian Kemp, along with numerous other Members of Congress, state legislators, caucuses, corporations, and trade associations, solidifying Cygnal as a clear leader in political polling and analytics.
