WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 12, 2026) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following monthly National Voter Trends (NVT) poll (conducted Aug. 6-6) of 1,500 likely general election voters.
Democrats gained a net point in their lead the generic congressional ballot 49 percent to 42 percent (D+7), with both parties losing voters to undecided, which now sits at 9 percent. The survey also identifies turnout, populism, distrust, data centers, and economic frustration as the forces shaping the midterm electorate.
“Voters are clearly sharpening the hierarchy of what matters most to them as the midterms really heat up and campaigns kick into a higher gear,” said Chris Lane, Senior Partner and Pollster at Cygnal. “They are worried about prices, they want candidates with plans and personal integrity, and they are deciding whether today’s politics offers them anything worth showing up for. The most competitive voters to win over are less interested in partisan performance than in competence, decency, and results they see in their daily lives.”
Data vs. Dogma
Our Pollsters’ Top Five:
Cygnal’s Turnout Score gives Democrats an advantage among the voters most certain to participate.
Cygnal’s new custom Turnout Score combines behavioral and psychological measures of likelihood to vote. Thirty-nine percent of likely voters fall into the High Turnout tier, 29 percent into Strong Turnout, 17 percent into Mid-Turnout, and 15 percent into Turnout Risk. Democrats lead by 12 points among High Turnout voters, while the Strong Turnout tier is tied 44 percent to 44 percent. High-turnout Independents break Democratic by 35 points, making turnout structure, especially among Independents, a central challenge for Republicans.
Data-center opposition is growing, and concern is strongest among voters worried about costs and control.
Forty-four percent of voters expect new AI data centers to have a negative effect on the country, compared with 19 percent who expect a positive effect. Awareness has climbed sharply since May, and opposition has grown most among suburban women, Midwestern voters, and adults ages 30 to 54, rather than among voters closest to construction.
“People do not need a white paper to understand their electric bill,” said Brent Buchanan, Founder and CEO at Cygnal. “They are asking who pays when huge new facilities come online, and they do not trust companies that simply promise the answer will not be them. The projects closest to people have a chance to earn support when the benefits are visible and the commitments are real. Everywhere else, voters are left with a cost they can see and a promise they do not trust.”
Republican softness is an engagement problem more than a party-switching problem.
Twenty-six percent of Trump’s 2024 coalition is no longer firmly locked into a Republican congressional vote, representing 12 percent of the full electorate. Only 2 percent have moved to Democrats. The rest are softer Republican voters or undecided voters who report lower motivation, lower interest in political news, and less confidence that voting can make a difference. They prioritize inflation, government spending, health care, and Social Security, and they put greater weight on competence and integrity than on toughness or partisan loyalty.
Inflation has returned as the dominant issue.
Twenty-seven percent of voters name inflation and the economy as Congress’s top priority, up 5 points from July and 11 points ahead of the next issue. The increase spans party and demographic lines, including lower-income voters, Independents, Democrats, Republicans, and Southern voters. Among the highest-turnout voters, inflation ties threats to democracy as the top concern, while voters at greatest risk of sitting out prioritize inflation by a wide margin.
The midterm vote is becoming more personal and less abstract.
A quarter of voters say they are supporting a Democrat for Congress specifically to oppose President Trump, up 4 points from July. At the same time, voters place more value on specific plans and policy positions, at 57 percent, and honesty and personal integrity, at 49 percent, than on party affiliation, faith, biography, or a candidate’s willingness to fight. The electorate is looking for proof that candidates can deliver results and understand the problems people face in their own lives.
Data Nuggets:
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Led by CEO and pollster Brent Buchanan, author of America’s Emotional Divide, Cygnal is an award-winning international public opinion and predictive analytics firm that has revolutionized the polling industry with multi-mode polling, message mapping, and emotional analytics. Recognized as the #1 private pollster by the Silver Bulletin and The New York Times, the firm boasts an impressive 95 percent accuracy rating in the 2024 election cycle. With experience in all 50 U.S. states and over 20 countries, Cygnal has strategically guided over 3,100 campaigns and conducted more than 4,800 polls. Its client roster includes high-profile figures such as Governors Greg Abbott and Brian Kemp, along with numerous other Members of Congress, state legislators, caucuses, corporations, and trade associations, solidifying Cygnal as a clear leader in political polling and analytics.