The most populist voters in America are the least likely to vote. The most certain voters are the most Democratic. And a quarter of Trump's 2024 coalition is no longer locked in, though almost none of it went to the Democrats. Those three findings come out of two new measures Cygnal is debuting this month, the Turnout Score and the Populism Index, built on our August National Voter Trends poll of 1,500 likely midterm voters. Together they explain more about how this midterm breaks than party ID does. Brent Buchanan and Nick Weinstein walk through what each one found and what it means for a campaign trying to put a coalition back together. The topline: Democrats lead the generic ballot 49 to 42, but voter expectations swung 9 points toward Republicans in a single month and inflation is back on top of the issue agenda at 27 percent. For Republicans the job is engagement, not conversion. Full data at cygn.al