WASHINGTON, D.C. (October 12, 2026) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released a new national survey (conducted Oct. 7-10) of 1,500 likely midterm voters about foreign conflicts that pre-date Donald Trump’s re-election. The survey finds broad agreement on a basic foreign policy principle: countries have the right to defend themselves. Ninety-five percent say a country attacked by terrorists or a tyrannical neighbor has the right to respond militarily. Agreement is 99 percent among Republicans, 96 percent among Independents, and 92 percent among Democrats.
“The world is on fire, and Russia’s war in Ukraine and Israel’s war in Gaza have dropped out of the conversation,” said Cygnal CEO and Pollster Brent Buchanan. “Voters haven’t forgotten them. They say a country attacked by terrorists or a tyrannical neighbor has the right to respond, and they want America to deal with those threats at the source.”
The Top Takeaways:
Self-defense draws near-universal agreement.
Even voters ages 18–29 agree at 88 percent, only 7 points below all voters. So do 96 percent of voters who want foreign policy to focus on America rather than other countries. Ninety percent say military action is justified to stop an ongoing attack or rescue civilians held captive. Sixty-nine percent say it is in America’s interest to stop tyranny and terrorism at the source, while 19 percent say America should wait until it affects us.
Voters apply the same standard to Ukraine, Taiwan, and Israel.
Ninety-one percent say Ukraine was justified in defending itself against Russia. Eighty-six percent support Taiwan protecting itself against China, and 85 percent say Israel has the right to defend its civilians.
“The media says Americans have turned on Israel,” Buchanan said. “Voters judge Israel the way they judge Ukraine and Taiwan, as an ally with the right to defend its people. Even voters who want us to focus on America back Israel’s right to defend itself at 82 percent.”
Voters want to stand with allies.
Sixty-four percent say America is safer standing firmly with its allies, even if that risks involvement in conflicts. Twenty-five percent say America is safer to stay out. A majority of every party agrees, including 72 percent of Republicans, 62 percent of Democrats, and 59 percent of Independents.
Age, religion, and news platforms divide views on Israel’s existence.
Two-thirds (67%) support Israel continuing to exist as an independent country, 16 percent oppose, and 17 percent are unsure. Support reaches 89 percent among Republicans and 77 percent among voters 65 and older. It is at least 71 percent in every religious group. Support falls to 49 percent among voters with no religion and 41 percent among voters ages 18–29. Liberals make up 29 percent of voters but 58 percent of those who oppose Israel’s existence.
Where voters get their news also matters. Among voters who name TikTok as a main news source, 36 percent support Israel’s existence, compared with 70 percent of all other voters. Their support for Israel’s right to defend its civilians falls to 65 percent, against 86 percent of other voters. TikTok is a main news source for 18 percent of voters who strongly oppose Israel’s existence, compared with 4 percent of those who support it.
Young voters are an exception.
Voters ages 18–29 are the only age group in which more say America is safer staying out (48%) than standing with allies (43%). They back Ukraine’s defense at 91 percent but Israel’s at 67 percent, a 24-point gap. Among Democrats, 50 percent of those under 45 say standing with allies is safer, compared with 70 percent of those 45 and older.
However, younger Republicans under the age of 45 break the mold. Only 34 percent want a foreign policy focus only on America, and when the bullets fly, they support action as proven in 90 percent of them saying Israel has a right to defend its citizens, 86 percent for Ukraine, and 88 percent for Taiwan.
Data Nuggets:
Methodology: Cygnal surveyed 1,500 likely midterm voters nationwide from Oct. 7-10, 2026. The margin of error is ±2.5 percent. Oversamples were conducted among Jewish voters: n=280 | ±5.86% and Republicans under the age of 45: n=459 | ±4.57 percent.
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Led by CEO and pollster Brent Buchanan, author of America’s Emotional Divide, Cygnal is an award-winning international public opinion and predictive analytics firm that has revolutionized the polling industry with multi-mode polling, message mapping, and emotional analytics. Recognized as the #1 private pollster by the Silver Bulletin and The New York Times, the firm boasts an impressive 95 percent accuracy rating in the 2024 election cycle. With experience in all 50 U.S. states and over 20 countries, Cygnal has strategically guided over 3,400 campaigns and conducted more than 5,000 polls. Its client roster includes high-profile figures such as Governors Greg Abbott and Brian Kemp, along with numerous other Members of Congress, state legislators, caucuses, corporations, and trade associations, solidifying Cygnal as a clear leader in political polling and analytics.