Ruto losing support from his 2022 coalition
The poll finds that Ruto is retaining only half of his 2022 coalition.
50% of Ruto’s 2022 voters remain with him, while 35% have moved to the opposition and 15% are undecided. Ruto attracts only 22% of voters who backed Raila Odinga in 2022.
Among those who did not vote in 2022, the opposition currently leads Ruto 51% to 22%, with 28% undecided.
Kalonzo has emerged as the principal beneficiary of this movement. He has a +40 net favourable rating, with 44% describing him as a strong leader, 41% as smart and 39% as competent.
Among voters who supported Odinga in 2022, 63% now support Kalonzo.
The contrast between the two candidates is particularly stark on character. 56% describe Ruto as corrupt, 49% as dishonest and 39% as someone who favours his own circle, while only 28% describe him as a strong leader, 20% as competent and 10% as someone who cares about people like them.
By comparison, only 3% describe Kalonzo as corrupt and 10% as dishonest.
A country demanding change
The appetite for change extends beyond the presidential ballot.
Only 27% of voters believe Kenya is heading in the right direction, against 71% who say it is going in the wrong direction. The dissatisfaction is particularly pronounced in regions that Ruto needs electorally, including Nairobi, at -80 net wrong direction, and Central, at -77. Western is also strongly negative at -65.
The Rift Valley is the only region recording a net-positive view of the country’s direction, at +9.
The polling also finds that corruption is a particularly powerful issue among voters who could determine the result. 75% of undecided voters in the Kalonzo-Ruto head-to-head describe Ruto as corrupt, as do 67% of 2022 Odinga voters and 67% of 2022 non-voters.
Kalonzo’s lead comes with room to consolidate
While Kalonzo has a substantial lead, the poll also identifies a significant group of voters who want a new president but have not yet settled on an alternative.
The 63% who say it is time for someone new is 14 points larger than Kalonzo’s current 49% share in the head-to-head ballot.
This group is particularly important to the 2027 contest, with 61% under the age of 40 and strong concentrations in Central and Nairobi.
Kalonzo also has a significant advantage in the running-mate question. 66% say Edwin Sifuna would make them more likely to vote for Kalonzo, twice the 33% recorded by Fred Matiang’i.
37% say picking Kithure Kindiki would make them more likely to vote Ruto but 29% say none of the potential running mates tested would make them more likely to vote for him, rising to 53% among head-to-head undecided voters.
For more information, and to arrange interviews, please contact:
Benedict Lynn [email protected] +960 997 5633 (WhatsApp)
Sofija Stojanovic [email protected] ++381 64 5371398 (WhatsApp)
Cygnal Contact: Ryan Shucard, Senior Director of Strategic Communications, [email protected], 202-699-4837
About the Poll
The survey was conducted by Cygnal on behalf of BTP Advisers in September 2026, among 1,000 voters registered to vote in the 2027 general election. Interviews were conducted face-to-face across all eight regions of Kenya. Results were weighted to a likely 2027 general-election voter universe.
The margin of error is +/-3.1 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level.
About BTP Advisers
BTP Advisers is an international multi-award-winning British public relations company which has worked on three general elections in Kenya (2013, August 2017, and October 2017) and more than 40 other presidential and general election campaigns worldwide.
About Cygnal
Cygnal is a US-based international public opinion and predictive analytics firm. The firm is recognized as the #1 private pollster by The New York Times and Silver Bulletin and has worked on thousands of campaigns and conducted thousands of polls, with experience across more than 20 countries and all 50 US states.