WASHINGTON, D.C. (October 27, 2026) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released its final midterm National Voter Trends (NVT) poll (conducted Oct. 23-24) of 1,500 likely general election voters. Democrats lead the generic ballot 52 percent to 43 percent, but the race looks very different among voters who haven’t cast a ballot yet.
“This final data shows the Democratic base is counting on an agenda of investigations and impeachment should they win in November,” said Brent Buchanan, Pollster and CEO of Cygnal. “That is in direct opposition of what swing voters say they want out of a potentially Democrat-led Congress. This is an opportunity for Republican candidates to pitch voters on the issues they care about, and for 51 percent of swing voters that means lowering gas and energy prices.”
Top Five Takeaways:
A Dem House would bring back investigations and impeachment, and swing voters don’t want either: If Democrats win the House, only 20 percent of voters want them to investigate the Trump administration and 18% want impeachment. Among Democrats, traditional Democrats back impeachment (32%) as much as progressives (33%).
Republicans need a ‘Yuge’ Election Day: Nearly half of Republicans (48%) plan to vote on Election Day, compared to 29 percent of Democrats. Democrats have already banked votes equal to 17 percent of the electorate, compared with 10 percent for Republicans. Election Day makes up 53 percent of the votes still to be cast, and Republicans lead those voters by 15 points. Every other voting method favors Democrats, from early in-person voting (D+11) to mail (D+32).
Yet-to-vote still tied, and late deciders lean Republican: Voters who have already cast ballots back Democrats 63 percent to 35 percent. Voters still-to-vote split 47 percent for Democrats and 46 percent for Republicans, and notably they backed Trump by five points in 2024. Among them, Soft Republicans now lead Soft Democrats by 13 points, a 15-point swing from early October. Trump’s image with yet-to-vote voters improved by six points while Congressional Republicans improved by 12. Even those who decided who they would support in the last week favor Republicans by 10 points (51% to 41%).
“Democrats have banked their early votes, so this election now comes down to who shows up on Election Day,” said Buchanan. “When you look at the voters still left, the biggest and untapped group is who we call the ‘Policy-First Republicans’. They make up 18 percent of the electorate and more than 80 percent of them haven’t voted yet. Republican candidates need them to show up by speaking about policies and ideas, not personalities. If you get in front of them on fixes to cost of living as opposed to loyalty tests, there’s still a real path to give them a reason to show up and close the margin.”
Republicans have lost on five of six trust issues since February: Cost of living moved the most, from a 1-point Republican edge to a 12-point Democratic lead. Soft Republicans’ trust in the GOP fell 18 points, and men under 55 moved from R+2 to D+19. Immigration remains the exception, holding at R+11, and swing voters moving further toward Republicans by 10 points.
Committed partisans are least willing to accept a loss: Overall, 57 percent of voters would accept the election results as legitimate if their party loses Congress, while 28 percent would not. Trump Republicans (38%) and Progressive Democrats (36%) are among the most likely to reject a loss, compared with 14 percent of center independents.
Data Nuggets:
###
Led by CEO and pollster Brent Buchanan, author of America’s Emotional Divide, Cygnal is an award-winning international public opinion and predictive analytics firm that has revolutionized the polling industry with multi-mode polling, message mapping, and emotional analytics. Recognized as the #1 private pollster by the Silver Bulletin and The New York Times, the firm boasts an impressive 95 percent accuracy rating in the 2024 election cycle. With experience in all 50 U.S. states and over 20 countries, Cygnal has strategically guided over 3,200 campaigns and conducted more than 5,100 polls. Its client roster includes high-profile figures such as Governors Greg Abbott and Brian Kemp, along with numerous other Members of Congress, state legislators, caucuses, corporations, and trade associations, solidifying Cygnal as a clear leader in political polling and analytics.