In our poll, about 19% of respondents say they have already voted, which would put us in the turnout range of about 4.8 million, give or take a few hundred thousand on either side. This is a bit higher than 2018 though well below 2020 levels, which lines up if you look at early voting data (though older) that is a little ahead of 2018. We are seeing a shift in Republicans towards Election Day voting so there should be a larger number coming in then. We also only have 13% of voters who still have to vote early, and some might drop off so expect the bulk of the voting in Ohio to be on Election Day.
Among those who have voted early, our poll has the recall ballot at a lead of 57% / 39% (+18%). As we had seen before, this is also very close to the same margin that Tim Ryan is leading over JD Vance with early voters in the Senate race at 58% / 40% (+18%). The big difference right now is that out of the nearly 80% outstanding voters, Trump won them 53% / 38% (+15%), and JD Vance is only ahead by 50% / 41% (+9%). The big question now is if they join the others and come home when they actually have to vote. The table below breaks down the overall margin and party among those who have voted and those who will vote:
Overall, DeWine is running 16 points ahead of Vance among those who have voted and those who have yet to vote, running well ahead of Trump’s numbers. This is powered by a broad coalition with an iron grip on Republicans, a majority of Independents, and double-digit support with Democrats, even among those who have voted. Vance is likely to pick up Republicans when they go to vote, but the same could be said for Tim Ryan and Democrats. The group really up for grabs is Independents as about 20% of those who haven’t voted have not yet decided on their candidate. This group is not enthusiastic about voting, and most of them say they are undecided on the generic ballot so it is hard to know how they will break. They could end up not voting at all, but these voters are middle-aged, low-income, and infrequent or mid-turnout voters at best. Biden’s favorability rests at 8% / 77% (-69%) so don’t expect them to break for Tim Ryan like the Independents that have voted so far.
The other two ballots are below with the same contours as before where the partisans come home, and given that, there are more Democrats undecided. It would not be surprising if these eventually wind up mirroring the R+10 generic ballot more.
The one big difference is that Secretary of State Frank LaRose is winning over more Independents who have already shown up. This is probably due to the role each office plays as SoS Democratic candidate Chelsea Clark is currently winning 74% of voters whose top concern was a women’s right to an abortion, while in the AG race, Democrat Jeffrey Crossman is winning 80% of these voters. These could sync up in the end but speaks to the split ticket intention we saw in our October National Monthly Tracking Survey where abortion focused voters that said they would vote GOP on the generic ballot were more willing to split their ticket.
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Cygnal’s Ohio Statewide toplines and full analysis deck are below. Also available for download are individual toplines for the Cincinnati, Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton, Toledo, and Youngstown DMAs.