WASHINGTON, D.C. (October 30, 2024) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following Florida statewide poll (conducted Oct. 26-28) of 600 likely general election voters.
“What we’re seeing among Hispanic voters in the Sunshine state is a death knell for Democrats’ political hopes in Florida,” said Pollster John Rogers. “Among Hispanics, Trump leads Kamala Harris by 10 points, Rick Scott leads by 8 points in the US Senate race, and Governor DeSantis has a +14 net image.”
“This was supposed to be the year that national Democrats expanded the map and put Florida back in the swing state column—but Kamala Harris is underwater and the top concern for swing voters is inflation and the economy, followed by illegal immigration. The Democrat standard bearers aren’t popular with key voter groups, and neither are the left’s core policy proposals.”
“Rick Scott’s appeal is also broader than some Beltway insiders might guess—he’s leading by 5 points among Independents.”
Here are the Top Takeaways from Rogers:
- Florida continues its right-ward trend, with Trump capturing more than 50% of the vote and Scott’s lead extending beyond the margin of error. Florida gives the Republican a 5% advantage over the Democrat on the generic congressional ballot.
- Kamala Harris is a drag on down-ballot Democrats, with a net image of -7, in contrast with Trump’s +2 net image and DeSantis’s +6 net image.
- Inflation is the top concern for Hispanics, Independents, and undecided voters in the presidential and US Senate elections—national Democrats’ focus on abortion isn’t going to swing undecided voters their way in the Sunshine state.
- Among Hispanics, Scott leads by 8% on the Senate ballot; Trump by 10%. This is a death knell trend for national and statewide Democrats in Florida.
- Rick Scott leads by 5% among Non-Partisan Affiliated voters (Independents), showing broader appeal in his home state than is often appreciated by DC insiders.
Quick Hits:
Presidential Race: Trump (48%); Harris (43%); undecided (5%).
Senate Race: R-Rick Scott (49%); D-Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (45%). A combined ballot, incorporating generic congressional ballot responses from US Senate ballot undecideds, projects these results.
Vote Method: already voted (52%); vote early in-person (23%); vote in-person on Election Day (19%); vote absentee by mail (6%).
Top Issues: inflation and the economy (26%); illegal immigration and border security (20%); threats to democracy (18%); abortion protections (14%); social security and Medicare (5%).
Medicaid Expansion: yes (58%); undecided (22%); no (20%).
Gov. DeSantis Image: favorable (52%); unfavorable (46%).
Sen. Rubio Image: favorable (45%); unfavorable (43%).