WASHINGTON, D.C. (September 10, 2024) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following Michigan statewide poll (conducted August 28 – September 1, 2024) of 600 likely general election voters.
“Despite some prevailing inaccurate narratives across the state, Republicans are in a strong position among Michiganders,” said Pollster, Chris Lane. “Not only are Republicans trusted more on the key issues, but they are also seen as an important check on Governor Whitmer’s liberal policies. Republicans hold a strong four-point lead on the generic ballot for the Michigan House of Representatives, teeing them up for success on Election Day. It’s also notable Republicans are gaining more ground with Independent voters who express the most discontent with the direction of the state. These conditions are good news for President Trump and Senate candidate Mike Rogers because both are within just one point of their Democrat opponents as undecided Independents will likely be the deciding group in these tight races. Remember, Joe Biden won Michigan by three points in 2020 so these numbers indicate Democrats are on the ropes and will have a much harder time replicating those results with the Harris-Walz ticket.”
Here are Lane’s top takeaways:
Presidential Ballot: Donald Trump (46%) is within one point of Kamala Harris (47%) and both are tied among Independent voters. Trump also leads among both noncollege-educated men (66–27) and noncollege-educated women (47% – 46%).
Senate Ballot: Mike Rogers (43%) is within one point of Elissa Slotkin (44%) and leads her among Independent voters by one point (18% remain undecided). Among so-called “double haters”, Rogers also leads Slotkin by 21 percent.
State House: Half (50%) of voters prefer a Republican-led check-and-balance on Gov. Whitmer, including 57 percent of Independents, as Republicans in the state house are viewed more favorably (45% – 41%) than their Democrat counterparts. Republicans also hold a four-point advantage on the generic ballot (48-44) and a 10-point advantage with Independent voters.
Top Issues: The top priority for voters remains inflation and the economy (34%), ahead of illegal immigration (14%) but voters trust Republicans more (49% – 37%) than Democrats to prioritize Michigan families enduring the impact of the migrant crisis. Voters also trust Republicans more on crime/public safety (47 R – 36 D) as well as managing the state’s budget (45 R – 36 D).
Key Demos: Independents, which make up nearly a third of likely voters, are most intensely pessimistic about the direction of the state with 27 percent saying the state is definitely on the wrong track while only 14% say it is definitely headed in the right direction. Support for Democrats among minority men also dropped 21 percent on an informed generic ballot.