WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 13, 2025) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following monthly National Voter Trends (NVT) poll (conducted Aug. 7-9) of 1,500 likely general election voters.
Data vs. Dogma
Here are two prevailing narratives across the news and social media landscape that don’t square with the latest data:
DOGMA: Minority voters think race should be considered in drawing congressional districts
–vs–
DATA: Both Hispanic (55% should not) and Black (49% should not) voters believe that race should NOT be considered when drawing congressional districts. Overall, 69 percent of voters say states should not consider race. Independents (51% care extremely) and Democrats (58% care extremely) are the most obsessed with the redistricting issue compared to Republicans (38% care extremely).
DOGMA: The American Dream is alive and well.
–vs–
DATA: Voters aged 55–64 are most positive about the American Dream (50% alive, 44% not alive), and voters 65+ (48% alive, 46% not alive) tend to be more split – both well below historical belief in the American Dream. The negative sentiment is felt most among younger voters under 30 (30% alive, 67% not alive). Republicans responded most affirmatively (69%).
“There’s a good reason why more and more young people are turning to the Republicans,” said Mitch Brown, Partner and Pollster. “Because of President Trump these younger voters have a leader who can convert much of this cynicism about the their lack of personal opportunities and the direction of their country into positive economic opportunities and mobility. Young people want to believe in the American Dream, but they also want to know there’s tangible action behind that. Trump understands this better than any politician and expect him to try and grow that 30 percent of voters under 30 who believe that dream is alive.”
Top 5 Takeaways from this NVT:
Democratic doldrums: Despite continue attacks against him, Donald Trump’s image remains resilient; since Liberation Day in April, unfavorable views toward Trump have not moved an inch. Republicans (-5 net image) continue to be viewed much more favorably than Democrats (-11 net image). Formerly the party of the working class, Democrats are now viewed 57 percent unfavorable and only 38 percent favorable among blue collar voters (-19 net image). However, Democrats are more motivated for the midterms compared to Republicans.
“There is a good reason President Trump is focused on issues that play well to his base,” said Brent Buchanan, Pollster and President at Cygnal. “He sees that 71 percent of Democrats say they are highly motivated, and despite all the lunacy we see each week from the Left, Trump won’t take anything for granted. Republicans should follow Trump’s lead and do everything they can, especially as we’re close to year out from the midterms, to close that motivation gap. Trump still has a long list of things he wants to accomplish and he’s a man of action, so expect to see base issues pop up more and more as we get closer.”
Interest in rates: is about the extent of voters’ engagement with the president’s latest complaints about the Federal Reserve. A whopping 78 percent say they are concerned about the impact of interest rates on the economy, and 57 percent want the Fed to lower rates over the next year, echoing President Trump’s call for a course correction. Only 10 percent approve of how rates have been handled, with 46 percent also believing the main reason for raising rates is to control inflation. Overall, voters are agnostic about Powell’s tenure as chair or his continued service in that role, but they have strong opinions about the outcome of Powell’s choices on interest rates.
MAHA aligns: further with the American mainstream by rejecting government subsidies for unhealthy foods. Sixty-one percent of voters say food stamps should not be eligible for purchasing unhealthy foods like sugary snacks and drinks as well as other highly processed junk. Once again, Democrats are picking the wrong side of a popular issue, with 53% believing EBT should be able to be spent on junk food.
“For some reason, the debate about using government food stamps to purchase junk food, is one we’ve been having for years,” said Brown. “Trump is a president who ends these kinds of debates by following commonsense. Everyone knows junk food decreases long-term health outcomes. Allowing folks who need those programs to purchase food that doesn’t help them get to a better place goes against commonsense and good use of public resources. So much of the MAHA platform is based on commonsense and this is just another example of how it aligns with where the clear majority of Americans are.”
Tariffs never backfired: against Trump as views remain mostly split since their announcement – though a majority (53%) understand tariffs have resulted in increased government revenue. Aware of this increased revenue, 48 percent say the president has been successful in his tariff negotiations. Independents are least supportive of the tariffs with 14 percent opposing them outright and 21 percent saying Trump’s work has been unsuccessful.
“This latest data affirms President Trump’s sense about how his tariff actions would be received at home,” said Buchanan. “From all the talk and hype from his opponents and pundits, the tariffs have not been the cataclysmic event they were made out to be. In fact, the number that stands out is that over 50 percent of voters were aware of more revenue coming into the government coffers – some can disagree on the principality of tariffs but it’s a good sign for Team Trump that so many know how much revenue has been collected in such a relatively short time of enacting and negotiating these.”
Airlines might regret: the implementation of predictive AI pricing that charge travelers the maximum they’re willing to pay for tickets. Overall, a stunning but unsurprising 80 percent of voters think this practice is unfair but the most interesting part if that non-white voters are two times more likely to say the practice is fair compared to their white counterparts.