National Poll: Trump Leads Biden by 2 points; Trump’s Conviction Shows No Signs of Weakening Him; ‘Threats to Democracy’ Now Weapon of Choice for Dems 

WASHINGTON, D.C. (June 12, 2024) – Cygnal, the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firm, released the following national poll (conducted June 4-6) of 1,500 likely general election voters. 

“Abortion has been replaced with threats to democracy as the main messaging weapon against Republicans. It is a more nebulous term with no clear definition from voter to voter which gives the left more flexibility with messaging and attack ads,” said Pollster and Director of Political Strategy, Mitch Brown. “We’re also watching Independent voters very closely since they list threats to democracy and healthcare (an issue otherwise largely dormant in previous cycles) among their top issues. These are people who mostly view both parties as extreme and are more motivated by issues more than the negatives of candidates, but their erratic behavior in the polls poses a significant challenge for campaigns that are under water with their base and swing voters.” 

Brown’s top takeaways: 

Horse Race: Trump still leads Biden by two points (47% Trump, 45% Biden) nationally. Trump’s unfavorable rating drops one percent, and he leads with swing voters by five points but is down two points behind Biden with Independents – a noticeable shift. Third-party candidates are showing signs of decline as more voters move to partisan options. RFK Jr. leads third-party candidates and captures eight percent nationally. 

Trump Trials: After Trump’s convictions, voters are less likely to view the cases against him as legitimate. These trials haven’t moved the topline numbers, especially among Independents as they’ve migrated more to Biden while Trump has consolidated his base significantly in the wake of his conviction. More notable; 40 percent of Independents say his convictions weaken democracy

Key Demo: In May, black voters said the Republican Party was more extreme than the Democratic Party (55-24%). In less than a month, Republicans narrowed that 31-point gap to just 6 points (43-37%). That is a 25-point swing in less than a month. 

Top Issues: Biden’s border and immigration announcement has had little to no effect. Two-thirds believe limiting crossings to 2,500 per day is ineffective and unable to make a difference. This includes key voter groups like Independents and Hispanics by a 2:1 margin

Top Issues: Abortion has dropped to a new low among voters’ top issue priorities. Democrats’ plans to weaponize the issue against Republicans shows little signs of having any direct impact on the 10-15 percent of voters across five states who will decide this election. 

Policy Impact: Voters believe Trump’s policies while he was in office were better for their lives than Biden’s current policies by a 5-point margin. This includes 38 percent of Independent voters and 44 percent of Hispanics. 

Educated Electorate? One-out-of-every-four voters are unable to say which party controls the majority in either chamber of Congress. 

National Service: 34 percent of Americans support the idea of mandatory national service but say the program should offer a broader list of options beyond just military service. A close second (26%) was opposing a mandatory program in favor of alternative approaches to faster national unity and bolster skills development. Younger single men seem to find this idea most appealing and could indicate a new constituency to support and promote this concept in Congress like UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has floated in Britain. 

Tech Markets: Apple still dominates the smartphone market with two thirds of likely voters using the devices over others like Android. Interestingly, iPhone users are more likely to support Trump while Android users are more likely to swing for Biden. 

Pop Culture: In the Kendrick Lamar and Drake rap battle that gripped pop culture last month, most Americans appear to simply not care with 44 percent saying they didn’t know who either of the rappers are. But for those who do, Kendrick Lamar wins over Drake 20% to 6%.