Op-ed by Cygnal founder and CEO Brent Buchanan
In the closing days of the 2026 midterms, I am not mincing words with my Republican clients. Put simply, angry voters tend to punish whoever is in charge – and right now that negative sentiment falls on the shoulders of the party in control of the White House and Congress. Voters who believe that the country is on the wrong track plan to vote for the Democratic party by 61 points, according to Cygnal polling. Back in 2024, when President Donald Trump roared to victory in an electoral landslide over Vice President Kamala Harris, those voters backed Republicans by 45 points. Another warning sign: Independents, who make up about a fifth of all midterm voters, lean Democratic by 14 points in our survey this week. That is half the 28-point gap we found in early October, but it is still more than triple the amount that Independents leaned Democratic in 2024. A third problem is widespread public concern about the cost of living. Voters earning less than $50,000 per year have moved 22 points toward Democrats since 2024. Democrats also now hold a 12-point edge (48 percent to 36 percent) on the question: Which party do you trust more to handle the cost of living? Thirty-one percent of voters who call inflation and the economy their top priority back Democrats by 28 points. Even voters without a college degree, a critical part of the Republican coalition of the past two decades, have shifted 14 points toward Democrats. Non-white voters without a degree drove most of that shift, moving 28 points toward Democrats, while white men without college degrees moved seven points. This is a difficult political landscape for anyone with an ‘R’ next to their name to navigate, but whether this election becomes a rout of historic proportions or preserves Republican control of the Senate is still to be determined. As the founder and CEO of the top private polling firm in the US, as recognized by The New York Times and statistician Nate Silver for the accuracy of our 5,000 polls conducted across all 50 states, I am advising my clients to focus on four key groups of discouraged and persuadable voters who will make the difference.
Back in 2024, when President Donald Trump roared to victory in an electoral landslide over Vice President Kamala Harris, those voters who thought the country was on the wrong track backed Republicans by 45 points
Soft Republicans
On the campaign trail, President Trump has told his supporters to pretend that he is on the ballot, but to some voters that makes little difference. The President may not like to hear that, but Republican candidates should. ‘Soft Republicans’ are the 55 percent of Republicans who say they see themselves more as traditional conservatives than Trump Republicans. They make up 21 percent of all voters – and represent a ‘soft spot’ in the GOP base. Only 43 percent of them view Trump ‘very favorably,’ compared with 80 percent of Trump Republicans. Just 21 percent say they are voting to express support for Trump. Instead, nearly six in 10 say they are voting based on Republican principles. But here’s the rub: 86 percent of them still plan to vote Republican in congressional races. They might have cooled on Trump, but most haven’t completely abandoned the party. Traditional conservatives favor Republican candidates by 76 points, down from 86 points in early October, while Trump Republicans are at 96 points. You can see these dynamics unfolding in the races that will decide control of the Senate. In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico appear to be in a dead heat. A late-September Fox News poll had Talarico ahead 51 percent to 49 percent among likely voters and found that 22 percent of Republicans who don’t consider themselves MAGA, back Talarico. In these final days, highlighting Talarico’s prior support for far-left social positions, like opposition to banning transgender athletes from girls’ sports and a belief in ‘six genders’ may make the difference.
A late-September Fox News poll had Talarico ahead 51 percent to 49 percent among likely voters and found that 22 percent of Republicans who don’t consider themselves MAGA, back Talarico
Brent Buchanan: I am advising my clients to focus on four key groups of discouraged and persuadable voters who will make the difference.
Double Haters
Sixteen percent of voters tell us that they dislike both parties in Congress. These ‘Double Haters’ tend to be higher-income, well-educated men. While all voters making over $100,000 per year are almost evenly split (as they were in 2024), these ‘Double Haters’ lean toward the Democrats by 37 points, up from 29 points in early October. They say they value candidates who will act as a check on the President, but they aren’t completely lost to the GOP, either. A quarter of them are voting Republican and another 13 percent are undecided. The key for Republican candidates is to appeal to the third of ‘Double Haters,’ who indicate that they may turn out for the GOP, if their candidate demonstrates some independence from Trump. In Maine, Republican Senator Susan Collins is an ideal candidate to test this theory. She was only one of seven GOP senators who voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial in 2021 on charges of inciting an insurrection at the US Capitol. Collins is currently locked in a tough fight against Democrat Troy Jackson. If she can demonstrate her autonomy to ‘Double Haters,’ she may win.
Undecided and Unmotivated
Next are the true undecided voters, (mostly made up of men under age 55 and black voters) who are 5 percent of the electorate and tell us they do not know how they will vote for Congress. Republican Senator Susan Collins is an ideal candidate to test this theory about ‘Double Haters’ Nearly half of them (48 percent) are independents. Seventy-two percent say the country is on the wrong track and they view Trump unfavorably by 41 points, even though 34 percent of them backed Trump in 2024. And they are also not just unsure of their choice; they’re checked out of the political process. Only 42 percent are extremely motivated to vote, compared to 70 percent of all voters who say the same. Men under 55 are the clearest swing group in the electorate. They favored Republicans by eight points in 2024 and favor Democrats by 11 points today. But only 63 percent of them say they are extremely motivated to vote, compared with 77 percent of voters 55 and older. As for black voters, Trump’s coalition moved some of these Americans toward the GOP previously. Today, their support for Republicans has fallen from 28 percent in 2024 to 14 percent and the Democrats’ advantage has grown by 26 points to 68 points. Their motivation is improving, with 64 percent now extremely motivated, up from 52 percent in early October. In that early October survey, only 33 percent of black voters said they believe their vote makes a difference. These voters may be under-motivated, but they are not unpersuadable. In Minnesota, Republican Michele Tafoya has sought to link her Democratic opponent, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, to an unfolding scandal in the state, in which individuals with ties to the Somali community allegedly obtained billions of dollars in public benefits fraudulently. A recent Star Tribune/KARE 11 poll showed Tafoya leading among independents, 38 percent to 32 percent, with 29 percent of them still undecided. Those are the voters who may be outraged at the misappropriation of tax dollars.
Fatalist Republicans
Finally, you may have heard quite a bit about Democrats having an enthusiasm edge, and they do, with 80 percent of party loyalists saying they’re extremely motivated to vote compared to only 67 percent for Republicans. But when you count voters who are ‘extremely motivated’ or ‘very motivated,’ the gap shrinks to six points (92 percent to 86 percent).
The group that GOP candidates must specifically target are ‘Fatalist Republicans.’ These are voters who are voting for the Republican candidate, or considering it, but who expect Democrats to win control of Congress. They make up about nine percent of all voters. What sets them apart is expectation, not preference. Fewer than half (48 percent) are extremely motivated to turn out, compared with 70 percent of Republican voters who expect their party to win. In early October, only 31 percent of them said they think their vote actually matters in this election.
In Minnesota, Republican Michele Tafoya (above) has sought to link her Democratic opponent, Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan, to an unfolding scandal in the state
They are not a fringe. Fourteen percent of all voters backing Republican candidates expect Democrats to win. Fatalists skew male (63 percent, against 46 percent of all voters) and younger, with only 19 percent aged 65 or older, compared with 30 percent of all voters. Most are Republicans (55 percent) or independents (35 percent), and 69 percent voted for Trump in 2024. This is a group that doesn’t need persuading. Its members need convincing to show up. The bottom line is that Democrats currently have a strong upper hand because voters are frustrated with the party in power, and anger and frustration are powerful motivators. Our latest national survey has Democrats ahead on the congressional ballot, 51 percent to 43 percent and the 28 percent of voters who have already cast ballots favor them by 28 points. But with just days left in the midterms, Republicans can still narrow the gap. Voters who plan to vote in person on Election Day favor Republicans by 15 points, so GOP candidates need to keep finding ways to win over persuadable voters and give their supporters a reason to go to the polls.
Brent Buchanan is the Founder and CEO of Cygnal, a national polling and analytics firm, and author of America’s Emotional Divide.
Read the Op-ed on the Daily Mail here.