WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 16, 2024) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following Pennsylvania statewide poll (conducted Aug. 14-15) of 800 likely general election voters.
“For all that has happened in Presidential politics over the last month and a half, the race for Senate in Pennsylvania is becoming immune to political volatility. The withdrawal of President Biden has done nothing to improve the reelection prospects of Senator Casey,” said Cygnal and Trump 2020 Pollster, Brock McCleary.
Here are the top takeaways from this poll:
Senate Ballot: The Senate Ballot has not shifted since July with McCormick remaining at 42%, Bob Casey at 46%, 12% of voters are undecided. Casey is underperforming the generic Senate ballot by 2% overall and by 8% with Democrats. On the full Senate Ballot, Casey 42%, McCormick 39%, John Thomas 3%, Leila Hazou 2%, Marty Selker 1%, Erik Messina 1%, undecided 13%.
In the Senate race, fewer than four-in-ten voters believe Casey deserves reelection (37%) while nearly half (47%) say they want someone new. A third of voters (33%) say it is definitely time for someone new, including a plurality of Independents (39%) and even one-in-five Democrats (19%) also want someone new.
Statewide Images: Governor Josh Shapiro (56% fav, 34% unfav); Senator John Fetterman (43% fav, 46% unfav); Senator Bob Casey (40% fav, 37% unfav); US Senate Candidate Dave McCormick (32% fav, 35% unfav, 20% no opinion, 14% never heard of).
Presidential Ballot: On a full ballot, Trump (44%, +2 from July), Harris (43%), RFK Jr. (5%; -4 from July); 23% of swing voters are undecided. In a two-way-race, Trump is in a dead heat against Harris (47% to 48%) with 5% (-3 from July) undecided.
Top Issues: Inflation and the economy continue to be the top issue with Pennsylvania voters (28%), followed by threats to democracy (15%) and illegal immigration and border security (15%). The latter two are partisan-driven issues, but inflation is a concern across party lines.