WASHINGTON, D.C. (April 11, 2024) – Cygnal, the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firm, released the following statewide poll of (conducted Apr. 4-6) of 1,000 likely general election voters in Texas.
“Despite some national narratives about Texas turning blue, this latest survey shows good news for Republicans. Governor Abbott’s leadership in the state has helped to create a favorable political environment for Republicans up and down the ballot this November, while President Biden is a millstone around the neck of Texas Democrats,” said Cygnal Pollster John Rogers. “Democrats are losing ground with critical voting groups on major issues like securing the border—which has now become the top political issue for Texas voters both in state and federal elections. This is one among many reasons why Trump is leading statewide by nine points and by five points in the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston media markets. Couple that with Allred’s slow start and poor name ID in the Senate race and it’s easy to see how Republicans remain well-positioned to keep Texas red.”
Here are Rogers’ top takeaways from this new national poll:
- Presidential Ballot: President Biden is deeply unpopular (-26 net image among voters overall, including -11 among Hispanics). Trump leads Biden by nine (51% – 42%) in the head-to-head matchup in Texas and in the full ballot with third-party candidates included (46% – 37%). Robert F. Kennedy Jr. pulls 8% statewide, but only 3% of voters say they will definitely vote for him. Kennedy pulls votes from both Trump and Biden, but slightly more from Biden.
- Most Texans blame Biden for the crisis at the border (54%) than Trump (23%) or Governor Abbott (17%). 39% say it’s been a failure of Congress.
- Undecided voters in the presidential contest are much more likely to blame Biden (39%) or the US Congress (41%) than Trump (25%) for the mess at the border.
- Senate Ballot: Senator Ted Cruz leads Congressman Colin Allred (45% – 36%), by a similar margin as Trump vs. Biden. Ticket-splitting in November remains unlikely: even in the DFW area, Allred trails Cruz by a similar margin as Biden trails Trump.
- A majority of Texans (52%) don’t know who Allred is or don’t know enough about him to have an opinion.
- Governor Abbott: The governor is viewed more favorably than any statewide elected official or candidate on the ballot this fall. Half of Texas voters have a favorable image of Abbott versus 46% who view him unfavorably. This closely mirrors his approval rating as governor (50% approve – 41% disapprove). Abbott’s image is -4 with women and +10 with men.
- Most voters (55%) support the actions Governor Abbott has taken to secure the border. Only 35% oppose (+20 net support).
- 47% of Texans say things are headed in right direction in their state versus only 27% who say the same about the United States as a whole.
- Woke Corporations: A majority of voters (55%) want businesses and corporations to stay out of cultural and politics debates. This position is held by 75% of Republicans, 51% of Independents, and 36% of Democrats. More than half of Democrats welcome businesses and corporations taking a stand on cultural and political issues.
- E-Verify for All Businesses: 68% of Texas voters support mandatory E-Verify for all businesses and employers to ensure the legality of their employees to work in the United States. A majority of Republicans, Democrats, Independents, and every racial group, including 57% of Hispanics, agree. 87% of Republicans support mandatory E-Verify, including 71% who strongly support.