Cygnal Poll: Blackburn Leads Bredesen by Statistically-Significant Margin

MONTGOMERY, Ala.– With just six days until the midterm elections, a poll by Cygnal, a national polling and research firm, shows Republican Marsha Blackburn with a 6-point advantage over Democrat Phil Bredesen in Tennessee’s US Senate race.

The live telephone survey conducted October 26 – 27, with 497 likely general election voters, shows Blackburn leading Bredesen 51% to 45%, with only 2% of voters undecided. Of the 46% of respondents who have already voted, 50% indicated they supported Blackburn, while 44% say they voted for Bredesen.

“Blackburn has a good lead, but she isn’t in the territory of Lee in part due to her inability to retain partisan support at the same level Lee does on the gubernatorial ballot,” said Josh Pendergrass, Tennessee native and Cygnal’s director of client strategy. “She needs to shore up her support with core Republicans and increase her support among voters with a favorable opinion of President Trump and of gubernatorial candidate Bill Lee.”

In the Governor’s Race, Republican Bill Lee holds a commanding 23-point lead over Democrat Karl Dean.

“Bill Lee is immensely popular with Tennessee voters, with a net +60 favorability” said Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s president and founder. “If they know what’s good for them, down-ballot Republicans will consider aligning themselves closely with Lee in the closing days of the campaign.”

As the final days of election season come to a close, interest in the midterm election remains intense. When asked how interested they were in the upcoming midterm elections on a scale of 0 to 10, 79% of survey respondents rated their interest as a 9 or 10. Only 5% of voters said their interest in the election was low falling between 0 and 5.

This Cygnal survey has a margin of error of ±4.40%. Interviews were conducted by live professional agents calling landline and cell phones. Cygnal is unaffiliated with either campaign or outside groups in the race.

The toplines, and crosstabs have been uploaded to our website. You can view our analysis memo here and a presentation of the results here.

Full data sets – including complete crosstabs, Smart Tables, and an extended memo – are available for purchase at a nominal fee; email [email protected] for details. 


Cygnal is a Montgomery, Ala.-based polling and research firm that has conducted more than 780 survey research projects in 42 states, including more than 200 in Alabama. Our team nailed both the 2014 and 2016 election cycles, correctly predicting Trump’s margin in Florida and his win in Wisconsin. Campaigns, corporations, associations, national committees, and state organizations rely on Cygnal to gather reliable, affordable polling data in state-wide, congressional, legislative, and local geographies.