WASHINGTON, D.C. – Under two weeks from election day, a poll conducted by Cygnal, a national research and polling firm, shows Republican Bill Hagerty up 20 points over Democratic nominee Marquita Bradshaw in the Tennessee Senate race to replace Lamar Alexander.
“Tennessee is a conservative state and so it’s no surprise that Hagerty is up, but it looks likely that he could double Marsha Blackburn’s 2018 margin of victory,” said Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s CEO and founder. “After a competitive GOP primary, Hagerty has consolidated the Republican vote and he’s up 4 points among Independents—that’s a huge cushion that assures he’ll become the next Senator from Tennessee.”
The Cygnal survey, conducted October 20 – 22, with 610 likely general election voters, shows Hagerty leading Bradshaw 56% to 36%, with 7% of voters still undecided. Cygnal conducted the poll in partnership with the Ready Education Network, a national coalition focused on improving education.
Hagerty leads by 10 points with women, 34 points with men, he’s ahead by 9 points among voters under the age of 50 and has a massive 28-point lead with voters age 50+, and leads among voters in every income bracket.
Hagerty is better-known than Bradshaw, sporting a 69% name ID to Bradshaw’s 38%. Both candidates are well-regarded by voters: Hagerty’s net favorability is +24, Bradshaw’s is +18.
“Hagerty’s support ranges across the entirety of the Volunteer State, from the Knoxville media market where he’s up by 22 points to Nashville where he leads by 15 points, ” said Chris Kratzer, Vice President of Research and Analysis at Cygnal. “Hagerty even has a slight edge in the Memphis media market, Bradshaw’s hometown.”
The survey also tested Governor Bill Lee’s favorability, and he’s in solid shape with a +22 net favorability. Governor Lee has a +8 net fav with Independents, a +13 with women, and a +34 with men.
When it comes to COVID-19, more Tennesseans are concerned about its economic impact than the public health fallout (50% economy – 44% public health).
With many of the nation’s public schools opting to not hold in-classroom instruction, 58% of Tenneeseeans support allowing parents to control a portion of the tax dollars that are designated for their children’s education if their school is closed for in-person learning. Majorities of Republicans and Independents and a large plurality of Democrats support the proposal. Only 19% of voters overall oppose the idea.
“There is overwhelming public support across party lines in Tennessee for giving parents access to the tax dollars dedicated to their children’s education when schools are closed,” said Luke Ragland, President of Ready Education Network. “Policymakers must find ways to make sure all families can get critical resources in these challenging times. Our education system needs to serve every child, no matter where they are learning.”
This advanced mixed-mode survey was conducted on October 20 – 22, with 610 likely general election voters, giving the poll a margin of error of ±3.97%. Interviews were conducted using live agents calling cell phones and landlines, an online sample acquired via SMS and email invitations sent to known registered voters.
Cygnal is not working with any candidate or independent expenditure in the Tennessee U.S. Senate race.
The toplines can be found below. You can download the xtabs for this survey here.