Cygnal Poll: Hawley Leads McCaskill Nearly At Margin of Error

MONTGOMERY, Ala. – With just seven days until the midterm elections, a poll by Cygnal, a national polling and research firm, shows Republican challenger Josh Hawley with a 3-point advantage over incumbent Senator Claire McCaskill in Missouri’s US Senate race.

“People won’t find many surprises in the results of this poll; Hawley continues to lead and it appears to have grown compared to previous public polls,” said Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s President and Founder. “With voter enthusiasm so high, this race is going to still come down to the success of each campaigns “get-out-the-vote” efforts.

The live telephone survey conducted October 26 – 27, with 501 likely general election voters, shows Hawley leading McCaskill 49% to 46%, with only 3% of voters undecided.

As the final days of election season come to a close, interest in the race remains intense. When asked how interested they were in the upcoming midterm elections on a scale of 0 to 10, 73% of survey respondents rated their interest as a 9 or 10. Only 6% of voters said their interest in the election was low falling between 0 and 5.

“We’re seeing a hyper-partisan divide of voters who tend to support a single party and whose opinions on candidates are formed, in part, based on their opinion of the other party,” said Josh Pendergrass, Cygnal’s director of client strategy. “Trump’s image does has an effect on voters, which is actually to Hawley’s benefit at this point in the race, especially if lower-propensity Trump voters show up to the polls in the midterm election.”

This Cygnal survey was conducted on October 26 – 27 with 501 likely general election voters giving the poll a margin of error of ±4.38%. Interviews were conducted by live professional agents calling landline and cell phones. Cygnal is unaffiliated with either campaign or outside groups in the race.

The toplines, and crosstabs have been uploaded to our website. You can view our analysis memo here and a presentation of the results here.

Full data sets – including complete crosstabs, Smart Tables, and an extended memo – are available for purchase at a nominal fee; email [email protected] for details.