WASHINGTON, D.C. (July 8, 2026) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following monthly National Voter Trends (NVT) poll (conducted June 30 – July 1) of 1,500 likely general election voters.
“While the political environment remains volatile, this survey suggests the country’s civic fabric is more durable than the daily mood and news cycle might imply,” said Alex Tarascio, Principal and Pollster at Cygnal. “Voters are pessimistic, frustrated, and emotionally strained. But after the July 4 holiday celebration, it’s clear voters largely still believe civic participation matters, still believe our country’s problems are solvable, and still find meaningful common ground on select issues. Americans remain deeply invested in the country even as they feel uneasy about where it is headed. They are net pessimistic about America’s future, but they are not checked out.”
Data vs. Dogma:
“July’s numbers show that voters may think the system is skewed to favor one side and that corporations and Wall Street have the real power over politics, but that participating in our system by voting is still the most important impact they can have,” said Brent Buchanan, Founder and CEO of Cygnal. “Democrats hold a decent advantage on the ballot in an environment where the middle is harder to reach and turnout matters more. Confidence in a GOP-led Congress is slipping at the wrong time this cycle, but when you look under the hood, this data shows an electorate that still thinks in terms of accountability and action. As we celebrated our 250th anniversary, that seems pretty appropriate for the American people, and it creates pressure on both parties heading into the fall. But the data also shows what Democrats are putting in front of voters is not resonating, and the ones considering the GOP prefer a candidate that’s more fiscally-restrained and capable of working across the aisle instead of a MAGA firebrand. History and voter expectations may favor the Democrats, but the GOP is still more aligned with voters on issues like energy, immigration, public safety and housing. If the GOP can get things like the bipartisan housing bill and SAVE Act passed the finish line, it would go a long way with persuadable voters.”
Our Pollsters’ Top Five:
Democrats gained a point over the last month and now lead the generic ballot 50 percent to 44 percent, with undecideds falling to six percent. Beneath that topline, the GOP coalition shows slight leakage with Trump GOP (see Six-Cluster Analysis) voters moving three net points more Democratic and Traditional GOP voters shifting two net points the same way. Truly middle-of-the-road Center Independents dropped 12 points away from the center while those right‑leaning Independents moved further into their pre‑decided partisan camps.
Democratic turnout intensity leads by 12 points on extremely motivated voters, while swing voters sit at just 31 percent extremely motivated compared with 74 percent of decided voters. Only 40 percent of Republicans say their party definitely wins Congress, and voters overall expect a Democratic Congress by an 11‑point net margin, more than double from last month.
Favorability for both parties fell four points since last month, and Republicans in Congress recorded their worst image since the 2024 election, driven heavily by Trump Republicans at -15 net favorability and Traditional Democrats at -17. In an otherwise sour environment, Mamdani is the only tested figure trending up, improving from net -5 to net -2 since November 2025, while Democrats in Congress fell from -10 to -17 over the same stretch. A red flag for Republicans is that the same voters pulling away from them are moving toward Mamdani, including women over 55 (+7 net since May), rural voters (+6), suburban voters (+7), and higher income voters (+14). But those voters are souring on Democrats in Congress at the same time. Among Independents, Mamdani’s favorability is dead even, while congressional Democrats are 35-points underwater. Voters are unhappy with everyone who holds institutional power and giving a serious look to someone new. It’s a warning to the establishment of both parties, and a direct threat to the one in power.
Gas prices as a “major strain” jumped from 28 percent to 32 percent in July. That burden is landing on Republican ground: men overall are nine points more likely to report gas prices as a major strain than last month, rural voters are up seven points, small town voters are up nine points, and Trump 2024 voters are nine points more likely to feel major strain.
The bipartisan housing bill is a supermajority winner with 83 percent support overall and a +74 net margin, with no party, gender, age, education, income, or community subgroup dropping below 70 percent support. Proof of citizenship requirements for voter registration (SAVE Act) draw an intensity monopoly, with 53 percent strongly supporting the requirement and strong support alone outnumbering all opposition 53 to 29, while 56 percent overall support automatic license plate readers and 83 percent endorse at least one appropriate use such as Amber Alerts, stolen vehicles, or solving crimes.
Data Nuggets:
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Led by CEO and pollster Brent Buchanan, author of America’s Emotional Divide, Cygnal is an award-winning international public opinion and predictive analytics firm that has revolutionized the polling industry with multi-mode polling, message mapping, and emotional analytics. Recognized as the #1 private pollster by the Silver Bulletin and The New York Times, the firm boasts an impressive 95 percent accuracy rating in the 2024 election cycle. With experience in all 50 U.S. states and over 20 countries, Cygnal has strategically guided over 3,100 campaigns and conducted more than 4,800 polls. Its client roster includes high-profile figures such as Governors Greg Abbott and Brian Kemp, along with numerous other Members of Congress, state legislators, caucuses, corporations, and trade associations, solidifying Cygnal as a clear leader in political polling and analytics.