WASHINGTON, D.C. – Cygnal, the nation’s most accurate private polling firm, released new polling data for the Kentucky gubernatorial and attorney general races ahead of the November election.
“We’re starting to see the landscape take shape and set the tone for what’s in store in the 2024 cycle,” said pollster Brent Buchanan, President of Cygnal. “With President Biden’s numbers continuing to plummet in the commonwealth, Republicans have an opportunity to capitalize on turning out those voters who currently view the incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear favorably but have completely soured on the President.”
Cygnal data shows Republican challenger Daniel Cameron is in a dead heat with Governor Beshear (47 – 47) with only 7% of voters saying they are undecided. Despite Beshear’s positive image, Kentucky’s political environment remains incredibly favorable for Republicans in this November’s election with the generic congressional ballot indicating an R+11 advantage.
“With both gubernatorial candidates holding at 47% ballot share, the opportunity for Cameron and Kentucky Republicans lies with converting swing voters who have a 94% of disapproval of President Biden but hold an 81% favorability of Governor Beshear,” added Buchanan. “Nationalizing the race will move these voters to Cameron and push the Republican statewide candidates toward the large overall advantage they hold.”
The race for attorney general starts with a 10-point lead for Republican Russell Coleman over Democrat Pamela Stevenson (39 – 29) with one-third of voters undecided. This is in-line with the generic Republican advantage in Kentucky for the 2023 general election.
Cygnal’s segmentation analysis further identified voters who approve of Governor Beshear but disapprove of President Biden are ripe for the picking as they are mostly supporters of former President Donald Trump (60% on 2020 retro ballot), are under age 65, and have lower education attainment (67% no college degree).
“The environment is ripe for Cameron and Coleman to win in November,” concluded Buchanan.
Complete toplines and crosstabs are available below.