Poll: RFK Jr., Manchin’s Impact on 2024 + Newsom’s Failed ‘Plan B’ Experiment and Party Extremism 

WASHINGTON, D.C. (December 13, 2023) – Cygnal, the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firm, released a new national poll (conducted Dec. 5-7) on an array of trending international and domestic topics along with the 2024 general election. 

“With less than a year until the 2024 election, our final poll of the year offers some clear insights on the potential impact of RFK Jr. and Joe Manchin in a Biden-Trump rematch,” said Vice President of Polling, Brock McCleary. “Despite prevailing narratives suggesting RFK ‘steals’ equally from Trump and Biden, he is hurting Biden more than Trump. Kennedy wins more Democrats and left-leaning Independents than he does Republicans. Add Manchin to the mix, and the race moves back to a tie.” 

Here are more of McCleary’s top takeaways from this new national poll:  

1. Only 7% of Democrats list abortion as their top issue. This reveals a big disconnect between how voters rank this issue and how Democrat campaign operatives use the abortion extremism message to bludgeon Republicans up and down the ballot. Expect this to remain the same through 2024 as Democrats attempt to paint Republicans as radical and keep them on the defensive. 

2. Yet, when it comes to which party is considered to be more extreme, the Democratic Party (47%) is now seen more extreme than Republicans (40%) with 12% of Democrats say their own party is the more extreme than Republicans. Younger voters report the same thing with those aged 18-29 (47%) and 30-44 (55%) handing extremist marks to Democrats while 33% of Republicans say their party is more extreme. 

3. 50% of voters support raising the retirement age for social security (38% oppose). Men are uniformly supportive, along with women 55+. Women under 55 are split. 

4. Gov. Gavin Newsom is a bad “Plan B” with a high unfavorable view (40%) and loses in a potential presidential matchup against Trump by 6%, which is a worse outcome than Biden who has a slim 1% lead over Trump. 

5. Voters are split on Biden’s handling of the Israel/Hamas conflict. 48% of voters approve while 45% disapprove. 1-in-5 Republicans approve while nearly 1-in-5 Democrats disapprove. Independents are split. Voters 55+ tend to disapprove while younger voters <55 tend to approve.