Cygnal Poll: Bevin Still Up Big in Primary Race; High Undecideds in Other Races

MONTGOMERY, Ala. – A week out from election day, a poll by Cygnal, a national polling and research firm, shows the incumbent governor, Matt Bevin, with a 38-point advantage over his chief primary challenger, State Representative Robert Goforth, in Kentucky’s gubernatorial race.

“Governor Bevin is reaping the benefits of high name ID, which appears to be too much for Goforth to overcome this close to election day,” said Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s president and founder.

The Cygnal survey, conducted May 10 – 12, with 600 likely GOP primary election voters, shows the Bevin/Alvarado ticket leading Goforth/Hogan 56% to 18%, with 23% of voters still undecided.

“This won’t be a question of if Bevin will win on Tuesday; it’s a question of how high he can go above 50%,” said Chris Kratzer, Cygnal’s VP of Research and Analysis. “As for the other statewide races, none of the candidates are well-known, outside of Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles. That leads to a high number of undecided voters.”

As the final days of primary campaigns come to a close, other statewide races in Kentucky are wide open, with more than 55% of voters unsure of who they’ll vote for in the Attorney General, Secretary of State and Agricultural Commissioner Republican primaries next Tuesday.

Daniel Cameron holds a 7-point lead over Wil Schroder in the attorney general Republican primary, and Michael G. Adams has a slight advantage over his closest competitor, Andrew English, for the Republican nomination for secretary of state. Ryan Quarles is up by double-digits in the Republican primary race for agricultural commissioner, leading Bill Polyniak by 28 points.

The poll also looked at the support of legalizing medical marijuana and casino gaming in Kentucky among GOP primary voters. Overall a majority of Republicans support both measures, however the legalization of medical marijuana is more broadly supported than casino gaming with this group of voters.

This mixed-mode survey was conducted on May 10 – 12 with 600 likely Republican voters giving the poll a margin of error of ±4.00%. Interviews were conducted using an online sample acquired via email and SMS invitations sent to known registered voters and filled in with Interactive Voice Response (IVR) to landline phones. This methodology reflects the way voters now communicate with more people using online communication than answering their phone.

The toplines, Smart Tables, and crosstabs have are available on the Cygnal website. A detailed analysis memo and presentation of the results are also available for download.

Cygnal is a national public opinion and market research firm that specializes in data-driven approaches to decision making. Cygnal was recently ranked #1 most accurate polling and research firm in the country for 2018 by The New York Times. Its team members have worked on more than 850 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns and worked in 44 states.