There are still two more weeks left to go, but we believe that nearly a quarter of all those who are going to vote have already decided to do so absentee by mail. We also believe that a majority of those who have already voted are aged 65 and older and the majority is Democratic. On the recalled ballot, Biden won these 66% / 32% (+34%), and Whitmer is ahead 67% / 31% (+36%). For Secretary of State, Democratic incumbent Jocelyn Benson is ahead with the already voted by a larger 69% / 28% (+41%), while AG Dana Nessel leads 66% / 31% (+35%). These numbers tell us a few things, particularly that these voters are the most partisan.
Whitmer runs well ahead of Biden overall on the topline but when Republicans actually go to the ballot, they may be lining up behind their nominee. This means Whitmer must hold her strength up with Independents or softer partisan voters up through Election Day, and she can’t take that lead for granted. Nessel is also running well behind the other named Democrats but among those who vote, she is catching up. The other real change over time has been voters’ top priorities where abortion has begun to fade in favor of economic issues.
The driver for this is Democrats, specifically those answering that they were mostly Democratic instead of strong Democratic. The chart below shows that the economic issues of inflation and jobs have seen rises since last week, while the right to choose an abortion has dropped. Among men, the drop was a bit higher, but you can see they moved more to healthcare.
Abortion is still a big driver for those who have yet to early vote (mostly younger Democrats) but isn’t a motivator for those on the fence about early voting. The crosstab below displays the breakdown among all voters, where 40% of those who have yet to vote by mail have this as the top issue, but they’re already likely to show up. It drops to only 11% among those on the fence about voting absentee, and inflation is a much bigger issue.
Be on the lookout for brand new MI data!
With Cygnal’s Momentum tracking poll in Michigan, we’ll be releasing data every other business day. The next round will be released Monday, Oct. 28. Want to learn more about our new tracking poll methodology? Discover all the ins and outs of Cygnal Momentum here.
Cygnal’s Michigan Statewide toplines and full analysis deck are below. Also available for download are individual toplines for the Detroit, Flint, Grand Rapids, Lansing, and Traverse City DMAs.
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