Cygnal Poll: Tuberville Up 14 Points in Alabama Senate Race

WASHINGTON, D.C. – Entering the last full week before Election Day, a poll conducted by Cygnal, a national survey research and polling firm founded in Montgomery, shows Tommy Tuberville up 14 points on Doug Jones in the Alabama Senate race. 

“The 2017 special election was always sort of a fluke occurrence and Alabama voters are poised to send Doug Jones packing after a short stint in office, ” said Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s CEO and founder. “Republicans have a 17-point edge on the generic ballot in Alabama and with President Trump up for re-election, Jones doesn’t have a plausible pathway to victory.” 

The Cygnal survey, conducted October 21 – 23, with 645 likely general election voters, shows Tuberville leading Jones 55% to 41%, with 4% of voters still undecided. Cygnal conducted the poll in partnership with the Ready Education Network, a national coalition focused on improving education.

Tuberville leads by 9 points with women, 19 points with men, he’s ahead by 12 points among voters under the age of 50 and has a 15-point lead with voters age 50+, and leads among voters in every income bracket. 

“With a two-touchdown lead and the election deep in the fourth quarter, Coach Tuberville is set to become Senator Tuberville,” said Chris Kratzer, Vice President of Research and Analysis at Cygnal. “Tuberville has campaigned on sticking closely with the President, and Trump’s support and endorsement have been key in catapulting Tuberville to the cusp of victory. President Trump might well be the only person more popular in Alabama than Nick Saban.” 

The survey also tested how voters view five major Alabama political figures. Governor Kay Ivey is almost universally well-known with a name identification of 89%, and voters overwhelmingly like her, with Ivey’s net favorability checking in at +29. 

Alabamians are less familiar with Lt. Governor Will Ainsworth, Attorney General Steve Marshall, and Secretary of State John Merrill, though all three have positive net favorability ratings. Ainsworth’s name ID is 33% and his net favorability is +10. 

Alabamians don’t look kindly on Roy Moore, the failed 2017 GOP Senate nominee, who has a negative net favorability of -29. 

When it comes to COVID-19, more Alabamians are concerned about its public health impact than the economic fallout (51% public health – 44% economy).    

With many of the nation’s public schools opting to not hold in-classroom instruction, 56% of 

Alabama voters support allowing parents to control a portion of the tax dollars that are designated for their children’s education if their school is closed for in-person learning. 61% of Republicans, 61% Independents, and a large plurality of Democrats (46%) support the proposal. Only 21% of voters overall oppose the idea.

“There is overwhelming public support across party lines in Alabama for giving parents access to the tax dollars dedicated to their children’s education when schools are closed,” said Luke Ragland, President of Ready Education Network. “Policymakers must find ways to make sure all families can get critical resources in these challenging times. Our education system needs to serve every child, no matter where they are learning.” 

This advanced mixed-mode survey was conducted on October 21 – 23, with 645 likely general election voters, giving the poll a margin of error of ±3.86%. Interviews were conducted using live agents calling cell phones and landlines, an online sample acquired via SMS and email invitations sent to known registered voters.

Cygnal is not working with any candidate or independent expenditure in the Alabama U.S. Senate race.

The toplines can be found below. You can download the xtabs for this survey here.