WASHINGTON, D.C. – A nationwide opinion poll published on Tuesday by Cygnal, a Washington, D.C.-based polling and market research firm, finds that 56% of suburban females intend to vote for a Democratic candidate in the 2020 presidential election.
The survey, conducted by Cygnal with more than 1,000 likely 2020 female suburban voters from every region in the United States, shows notable advantages for the Democratic Party on a generic ballot.
While female suburban voters, particularly in the southeastern and midwestern United States, have trended towards Republican candidates in previous presidential elections, the 2020 election may signal a further shift in the course of this crucial cohort’s voting intentions.
The data gathered by Cygnal identified that only 27% of female suburban respondents believe that President Donald Trump deserves a second term, while 65% believe it’s time for a new president in 2020. A majority of suburban women report disliking President Trump, with 66% of respondents finding the President as unfavorable. Only 32% holding a favorable opinion; 56% have a very unfavorable opinion of the President.
Additionally, over half of survey respondents have an unfavorable opinion of the Republican Party, while the Democratic Party reported 56% favorability.
“The change in political tone among a vital base of voters will require Republican candidate down-ballot to be their own man or woman when they appeal to suburban female voters,” said Chris Kratzer, VP of Research and Analysis of Cygnal. “As this group shifts blue, both President Trump and the GOP will need to hone the issues they use to appeal to suburban female voters.”
Cygnal’s findings may suggest that the realignment of female suburban voters to the Democratic Party could be both a reaction to the Trump presidency as well as Democratic policy positions being more in alignment with this voting block’s priorities. While self-identified Republican respondents find national security, the economy, and criminal justice to be the most important factors in determining their vote, healthcare, environmental issues, and gun laws were the most significant issues among Democratic respondents. Furthermore, the latter three policies were measured as some of the most important issues among all participants.
“Our research strongly suggests women in suburban communities are finding more appeal in Democratic policies, whether they were driven there by their dislike of the President or not,” said Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s CEO and founder. “Republicans head into 2020 with a disadvantage among suburban-female voters, and we must adjust course on how we communicate with this key group.”
This survey was conducted on August 12-22, 2019 with 1030 likely general election voters giving the poll a margin of error of ±3.05%. Interviews were conducted using an online sample collection platform across dozens of panels. Respondents were validated as likely voters using a custom Perry-Gallup scoring technique. This survey was weighted to a likely 2020 general election turnout of suburban females. This poll was commissioned, paid for, and conducted by Cygnal.
Cygnal is a national public opinion and market research firm that specializes in data-driven approaches to decision making. Cygnal was recently ranked the #1 most accurate polling and research firm in the country for 2018 by The New York Times. Its team members have worked on more than 900 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns in 45 states.