Moore Is Less

Former Chief Justice Starting Campaign at Significant Deficit, New Poll Shows

You can find the survey toplines here.

MONTGOMERY, Ala. – After a wild week in the Alabama primary race for U.S. Senate that saw former Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore and Alabama Secretary of State John Merrill jumping into the crowded field, a new Cygnal poll shows Moore struggling to overcome the strongly unfavorable opinion of him held by the majority of likely GOP primary voters.

The Cygnal survey, conducted June 22 – 23, with 612 likely GOP primary election voters, shows Moore in a distant third place (13%), trailing former Auburn head football coach Tommy Tuberville (29%) and U.S. Representative Bradley Byrne (21%). 65% of survey respondents said they had an unfavorable opinion of Moore.

“Entering the race with a -38 net favorability is going to be an enormous hurdle for Moore to get over – even if he does have a horse.” said Brent Buchanan, Cygnal’s CEO and founder.

Moore’s popularity has continued to fall since his failed 2017 bid for the U.S. Senate seat. Nearly a third of Republican primary voters indicated they would consider voting for the incumbent Doug Jones – the first Democratic Senator from Alabama in 25 years – if Moore became the Republican nominee. 

“In the span of two years, Moore’s favorability with GOP primary voters has completely cratered  – a swing of 64 points.” said Chris Kratzer, VP of Research and Analysis at Cygnal. “The cult of personality Moore once commanded has faded away and his once reliable voter base is only getting smaller.” 

Since the survey was conducted for Cygnal and by Cygnal with no outside funding or interest groups, the full ballot results and other candidates’ images will not be released publicly. Cygnal is not working with any candidate or independent expenditure in the Alabama U.S. Senate race.

“Last week I would have said – and did – that Roy Moore is in the ‘catbird seat’ to be in a runoff. That was based on his February 2019 image. President Trump recently turning on Roy Moore has caused significant damage to Moore’s standing with Republican voters to the point Moore is unelectable,” concluded Buchanan.

The probabilistic mixed-mode survey was conducted on June 22 – 23 with 612 likely Republican voters giving the poll a margin of error of ±3.96%. Interviews were conducted using an online sample acquired via email and SMS invitations sent to known registered voters and filled in with Interactive Voice Response (IVR) to landline phones. This methodology reflects the way voters now communicate with more people using online communication than answering phone calls.

Cygnal is a national public opinion and market research firm that specializes in data-driven approaches to decision making. Cygnal was recently ranked #1 most accurate polling and research firm in the country for 2018 by The New York Times. Its team members have worked on more than 900 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns and worked in 44 states.