WASHINGTON, D.C. (August 14, 2024) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following national poll (conducted August 6-8) of 1,500 likely general election voters.
“After one of the wildest six weeks of American politics, we find ourselves back at more of a stasis,” said Pollster and Director of Client Strategy, Chris Lane. “The idea that Kamala Harris came into this race and Independents and moderates stumbled over each other to support her is simply not the case. The truth is traditional Democrat voters simply started to indicate they are going to vote for the Democratic Presidential candidate, a not so shocking revelation. Biden had such a low floor that it was hard to believe that could last. At the same time, Harris faces challenges solidifying her support with 13 percent of 2020 Biden voters saying they do not consider themselves part of her base and a whopping 71 percent of likely voters perceiving Harris as ‘liberal’ versus only 15 percent who view her as ‘moderate’. That label will push away Independent voters while Trump maintains the edge on the issues voters care about most – the economy, cost of living, and illegal immigration.”
Here are Chris Lane’s top takeaways:
Horse Race: Harris is statistically tied with Trump, holding a one percent lead in the head-to-head matchup while both Harris and Trump have seen improvements in their public image. Trump’s net favorability has reached its highest point this year (46% favorable – 52% unfavorable), while Harris has experienced a 20-point swing in net favorability (47% favorable – 50% unfavorable) since early July. Tim Walz has a 35 percent favorable and 31 percent unfavorable rating, with a slightly positive image among Independents (+5).
Trump’s Edge: Trump still holds trust on the three crucial issues for voters, particularly among Independents. On illegal immigration, he’s +18 with Independents as well as +7 and +6 respectively on the cost of living/inflation and handling the economy and jobs.
GOP Base: Trump’s base of support (45%) is slightly bigger than Harris’ (44%) based on asking which candidate’s base they would consider themselves in, if any. Independents are slightly more likely to consider themselves in Harris’ camp, while Trump gets a boost from men and rural communities.
Dem Base: 13 percent of voters who supported Biden in 2020 do not consider themselves part of Harris’ base. However, Democrats have consolidated behind Kamala in a way they didn’t behind Biden. Our data went from “definitely Biden” at 33 percent in early July to “definitely Harris” at 42 percent this month. Most notably, 71 percent of voters say Harris’ political ideology is ‘liberal’ versus 15 percent who labeled her as ‘moderate’.
Top Issues: Concerns over inflation and the economy remain the top issue but it’s notable that ‘threats to democracy’ have steadily increased and now reached an all-time high (17%). This is primarily driven by partisan Independents and Black voters.
Third Parties: Support for third-party candidates (Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Stein, West) was stagnant or declined for the fourth consecutive poll. They have no shot at winning outside of impacting the race in certain states.
Poor Gavin: When asked if the United States would be better off if its policies were more like California’s, 52 percent of voters said the country would be worse off with only 28 percent saying we’d be better off.
Etc… Biden’s image remains at near-record lows following his exit from the presidential race, with a -20 net favorability rating.