WASHINGTON, D.C. (September 10, 2024) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following national poll (conducted September 3-5) of 1,510 likely general election voters.
“Ahead of tonight’s debate, it’s important to point out nearly half of voters (46%) blame the Democratic Party’s policies for the rising costs of inflation which isn’t great for Harris considering over two-thirds of voters hold her at least somewhat responsible for the Biden-Harris administration’s policies,” said Pollster and Cygnal President, Brent Buchanan. “Harris may have favorable mainstream media coverage and advertising advantages, but this race remains a statistical tie, and opinions formed of her are still soft and could easily swing. She has the most at stake in this debate and the most to prove to swing voters who are feeling the inflationary impact most.”
Here are Buchanan’s top takeaways:
Presidential Ballot: Trump and Harris are statistically tied on both the full (Trump 44 – Harris 46) and head-to-head (Trump 47 – Harris 49) ballots. Though Harris has slightly increased her margins driven mostly by college-educated men and Independents moving further in her direction since last month, Republicans maintain an R+1 advantage on the generic congressional ballot.
Running Mate Impact: Now that Tim Walz has been in the national spotlight, his name ID has increased significantly, but his appeal among rural voters is far below the expectations articulated by the Harris campaign. Compared to JD Vance (+15 net favorable), Walz is 20 points underwater among these voters. Moreover, Walz’ claims to have “carried weapons in war” though he never served in a combat zone are seen as an act of stolen valor by nearly half of voters, including by 51% of swing voters.
RFK Jr. Impact: His dropout and endorsement of Trump gives a small topline benefit to Trump. Interestingly, of the roughly nine percent of 2020 voters who stayed home, RFK Jr.’s exit from the race shows these voters are now 32 percent more likely to support Trump compared to only 25 percent for Harris.
Top Issues: Digging deeper into why inflation and the economy (35%) has grown as the top concern, most voters say the impact is felt mostly on groceries/food, utilities, transportation, and discretionary spending. Voters saying the cost of groceries/food is a 1 – 4 of 5 impact on them lean heavily Harris while 5 of 5 impact voters are 2:1 Trump. Illegal immigration (17%) and “threats to democracy” (12%), both of which have dropped in priority since last month, come in at a distant second and third place respectively.
Voting by Mail: As early voting has begun in some states, half of voters say they trust the security of the mail-in voting, while 46 percent say they do not trust it. Distrust is largely driven by rural voters, white voters, and Republicans whereas urban/suburban voters, minority voters, and Democrats say they trust the security of voting by mail.
Election Coverage: A staggering 62 percent of voters say they had little or no trust at all of the media’s coverage of the presidential election and candidates. Only nine percent said they trusted the media’s coverage, while 26 percent said they were somewhat trustful. However, cable news (43%) remains the dominant primary source of news with social media and national broadcast TV news tied for second (41%), distantly followed by local broadcast TV news (27%). Interestingly, 61 percent of men under the age of 55 say social media is their primary source of news.