WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 7, 2023) – Cygnal, the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firm, released this new national poll (conducted Oct, 30 – Nov. 1) on an array of trending international and domestic topics along with the 2024 general election.
“The battle over military and financial aid for both Ukraine and Israel will continue to dominate the conversation, and our latest national data articulates why there’s such a split on how to approach both time-sensitive issues” said Pollster and Cygnal President, Brent Buchanan. “With only 31% of voters believing the U.S. should actively engage in global affairs as the prevailing undercurrent, it’s no real surprise only 33% and 27% support aide to Ukraine and Israel respectively. However, when it comes to brokering peace, 12% more people say the U.S. should focus on peace in Israel compared to peace in Ukraine. It also puts President Biden in a pinch because Democrats are more likely to want the US to broker peace between Hamas and Israel (31%) than provide money and weapons to Israel (26%).”
Below are Buchanan’s top five takeaways from this new national poll:
- Who’s winning Independent voters? Trump has a six-point edge on Biden among Independents while 18% remain undecided. In a rematch of Biden v. Trump, the current President has regained a two-point advantage overall. This matters because Biden wins a non-Trump Republican matchup by four points. But with the addition of Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who takes 12 percent overall in a three-way Biden-Trump-RFK Jr. matchup, Independent voters jettison both Biden and Trump at eight and 10 points respectively.
- Despite the oversaturation of media narratives suggesting the contrary, 66% of voters believe unaddressed mental health issues are the main cause of mass shootings. 47% say the ease of access to firearms is the root cause while 34% attribute shootings to radicalization or extremism.
- Joe Biden’s image noticeably improved since last month – from upside down by 8 to upside down by 3 – likely due to the war in Israel. He was 45% fav / 53% unfav [-8 net fav] and is now 47% fav / 50% unfav [-3 net fav]. At the same time, there was a 10-point jump in “right direction” among Republicans, a similar 1-point jump for right direction with Independents, and a 6-point jump in right direction among Democrats.
- National security doubled as a top priority concern (5% to 10% in just one month). The voters in October who cared about national security were 59% Trump / 35% Biden on the ballot. In November, voters who say national security is the top concern are 53% Trump / 38% Biden, a 9-point shift for Biden. Inflation dropped to its lowest point since the beginning of the year at 31% as a top priority after spending the summer in the mid-30s.
- The U.S. Military is viewed very favorably, even being 76% favorable among very liberal voters. It’s a different story when voters think about the Pentagon leadership over the U.S. Military where conservatives are only 48% favorable (34% unfav) while liberals are 57% favorable (20% unfav). Trump 2020 voters are driving the biggest difference between favorability of the U.S. Military compared to the leadership of the military.
“We saw continued positive growth in how people are seeing the nation and economy move, and Biden is benefitting,” said Director of Innovation, Noah Wyhof-Rudnick. “However, the numbers among Independents aren’t moving as much, and negative feelings towards Biden are more baked in without a full perceived economic recovery.”