WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 15, 2023) – Cygnal, the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firm, released this new poll (conducted Nov. 6-12) of Hispanic voters in key states across America, including Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and Texas’s Rio Grande Valley.
Pollsters John Rogers, Mitch Brown, and Chris Lane led the effort to complete this poll, looking at some of America’s large Hispanic voting blocs in states that will be critical in the upcoming 2024 election. Key datapoints and insights below:
Top Five Takeaways
- Hispanic voters are pessimistic about the direction of the country (62% wrong track – 32% right direction) and tend to view Joe Biden unfavorably (-6 net fav).
- The top priority for Hispanic voters is inflation and the economy (36% overall) and is the top issue for at least one third of Hispanic voters in each state tested. The Republican Party is trusted more on the economy than the Democratic Party (R+2).
- Hispanic voters in all four states surveyed tend to view the U.S. Border Patrol favorably (+20 net fav; 53% fav – 33% unfav. – 14% no opinion), including nearly half of Democrats.
- 63% of Hispanic voters say the “American Dream” is achievable for them personally (31% not achievable).
- Less than a year from the 2024 election, Hispanic voters are open to the GOP and Trump: 41% would vote for Trump over Biden in a rematch of 2020, and 43% would vote for a non-Trump GOP nominee. Trump leads among Cuban Americans 58%-35%, while Biden holds a 54%-35% edge among Mexican Americans. Biden’s net image (-27) is worse among Hispanic Independents overall than Trump’s (-15).
Texas – Rio Grande Valley (Starr, Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties).
“Hispanics in the Rio Grande Valley started to trend towards the GOP and Trump in the 2020 election and our research suggests that Democrats can no longer take south Texas for granted,” Pollster John Rogers said. “The left’s attacks on law enforcement and the Democrat Party’s leftward shift on gender issues have hurt their support in south Texas—Hispanics here have an overwhelmingly favorable view of the U.S. Border Patrol and 74% oppose allowing biological men to compete in women’s sports, including 61% of Hispanic Democrats.”
Key Data:
- 35% of Hispanic voters said their top priority is inflation and the economy, followed by 17% who named immigration and 11% who chose gun control.
- In Texas, 61% of Hispanics said the U.S. should have strong enforcement of immigration laws and direct more resources to securing the border, while 28% favor an amnesty-based approach.
- A 2020 rematch would be a close-run thing, with Biden at 47% and Trump getting 43%.
- If Robert Kennedy, Jr., is on the ballot, Biden’s support falls to 40%, Trump’s to 39%, and Kennedy garners 11%.
- 69% of Hispanics believed the “American Dream” is achievable for them personally.
- 62% of Hispanics in the Rio Grande Valley believe that Israel’s military incursion into Gaza is justified; 23% say it’s not justified.
Nevada
“In a state where exit polling suggests Biden won 61% of the Hispanic vote in 2020, Nevada shows some glimmers of opportunity for Republicans,” said Pollster and Director of Client Strategy, John Rogers. “The top priority for Hispanic voters is inflation and they are split evenly between the Democrats and Republicans as to which party they trust more on the economy, with younger Hispanics trusting Republicans more. A stronger emphasis contrasting ‘Bidenomics’ and a Republican blueprint for alleviating inflation and unleashing the economy could help close the gap with Hispanics.”
Key Data:
- Both President Biden’s (-8) and Donald Trump’s (-31) net images are underwater with Hispanic voters in Nevada.
- Joe Lombardo (+13 net fav) is popular with a majority of Republicans and Independents, and over a third of Democrats. Catherine Cortez Masto (+16 net fav) is very favorable, especially with women, while she tends to be unfavorable among rural and Evangelical Hispanic voters.
- In Nevada, 45% of Hispanics said the U.S. should have strong enforcement of immigration laws and direct more resources to securing the border, with 41% saying they favor an amnesty-based approach.
- In Nevada, 57% of Hispanics believe the “American Dream” is achievable for them, personally.
Florida
“Florida’s Hispanic population is beginning to reflect the trends of Florida as a whole. Republicans must point to their most recent Hispanic vote gains in Florida as the blueprint for how to win over these voting blocs nationally,” said Pollster and Director of Political Strategy Mitch Brown. “With Trump making sizeable gains nationally with the Hispanic vote and Governor DeSantis showing what can be done when working in tandem with the community, Miami-Dade County is the best example that the conservative message, particularly the economic one, is working. The caution for Republicans is to not become complacent the way Democrats have been with many Hispanics. All GOP candidates must focus on building their coalitions with the Hispanic community with the understanding that even single digits gains in conservatives’ favor can mean the difference between winning and losing, especially when Democrats know they’re losing on the top issues motivating voters.”
Key Data:
- Biden and Trump have an equal unfavorable view (51%) among Hispanics in Florida. However, Trump leads Biden with Independent Hispanics by 10 points. That lead jumps to 18 points in a non-Trump v. Biden matchup. RFK Jr. only trails Trump by 7 points beating Biden by 1.
- Rick Scott (+3 net fav) is favorable overall while Marco Rubio (-2 net fav) is stronger among Republicans but split among Independents and more unfavorable overall.
- 63% of Hispanics in Florida say that Israel’s incursion into Gaza to destroy Hamas is justified including 61% of Independents and 74% of Cubans.
- 62% believe the “American Dream” is achievable to them personally; 68% of Republicans, 62% of Democrats, and 59% of Independents.
- 49% trust the Republican Party more on the economy, including 46% of Independents. On crime issues, Republicans hold an 18-point edge over Democrats.
- Overall, 56% of Florida Hispanics support strong enforcement of immigration laws and directing more resources to the border.
Arizona
“Republicans have a lot of work to do in Arizona, especially if they want to build on the gains they’ve made nationally in previous cycles,” said Pollster and Director of Client Strategy, Chris Lane. “As we’ve seen in our previous polls and now among Hispanics, economic concerns are overwhelmingly top of mind. But when 49% of Arizona’s Hispanics say they support stronger enforcement on illegal immigration, that is an opportunity for Republicans to bring them over on an issue they rank second only to the economy. Arizona is no walk in the park for Republicans but there’s a clear desire from voters to hear their pitch on these issues and it’s more than possible to pull more Hispanics, especially Independents, over to the Republican side.”
Key Data:
- Arizona Hispanics rank inflation and the economy their top priority (35%) with illegal immigration as a distant second (13%) while 55% have a favorable view of U.S. Border Patrol. 49% support strong border enforcement and more resources while 35% prefer more relaxed policies and amnesty.
- Katie Hobbs (+26 net fav) is extremely popular among Hispanic voters overall while Kyrsten Sinema (-16 net fav) is underwater with both Republicans and Democrats.
- Both Joe Biden (49%) and Donald Trump (62%) are viewed unfavorably among Arizona Hispanics.
- 62% say Israel’s incursion into Gaza to destroy Hamas is justified while 24% say it is not justified.