WASHINGTON, D.C. (November 14, 2025) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following monthly National Voter Trends (NVT) poll (conducted Nov. 5-6) of 1,500 likely general election voters.
Data vs. Dogma: New York City elected a socialist mayor, igniting conversations on the right about the potential rise to prominence of socialist governance in America – but voters don’t fully understand it nor are they extremely concerned about its rise.
- 45% say America needs less socialism, not more.
- 55% identify with the social justice elements of socialism (universal public access, government ownership of major sectors, equitable distribution) more than the negative consequences.
- However, once his socialist policies are explained, 55 percent voters view Zohran Mamdani’s election as a sign the Democratic Party has become more radicalized.
- Only 40% of voters have a negative view of Mamdani and over a quarter have no opinion or have never heard of him. This signals his rise in New York City fits within the generally accepted wisdom that America’s cities often experiment, to their own detriment, with whacky, whimsical, and otherwise unviable candidates at top posts in city government.
Our Pollsters’ Top Five:
Warning Signs: For the first time in two years, voters whose top priority is inflation and the economy now prefer a generic Democrat for Congress (D+13) over a Republican. Democrats also now lead by six points (D+6) on the generic congressional ballot, marking the largest single-month shift toward Democrats since after Biden dropped out of the presidential race. This poll is a warning sign for Republicans heading into 2026 and demands a recalibration of messaging.
“Republicans have plenty of time left to get their pitch to voters back on track,” said Cygnal CEO and Pollster, Brent Buchanan. “If they don’t, the numbers we see in this month’s NVT will amount to a lost opportunity to reassert a pro-growth, domestic-focused affordability message that speaks not just to the Trump coalition but also Independents and swing voters we’ll need to keep the majority in 2026. This requires midterm Republicans learn how to authentically appeal on their own to the coalition Trump has built. One key way to do that at a tactical level is to prepare for big spending on platforms like YouTube where the majority of Trump’s least engaged voters go for news and entertainment.”
Family Matters: Americans are clearly in holiday mode as they prepare for end-of-year travel, activities, and financial outlook – meaning concerns about inflation and the economy have now jumped back to the top spot among voters. Inflation and the economy surged as the top concern, jumping six points since last month, while threats to democracy fell sharply (-7 points) and healthcare – likely driven by cost concerns – near doubled since September.
“The murkiness of voters’ financial picture comes from them being less bullish on holiday spending – 43 percent say their spending will stay the same, 30 percent say they’ll pull back – and reporting tax anxiety about federal income and property taxes,” said Principal and Pollster, Alex Tarascio. “Mix that with uncertainty about America’s future and about 40 percent who say they don’t have a sense of whether the economy is still in a hangover from the Biden years or resetting and headed in the right direction.”
Send Them Back: 53 percent of Hispanics say the United States should deport all illegal aliens back to their countries of origin. Despite losing some ground among Hispanics overall, President Trump’s record on illegal immigration remains his strongest issue, and even 30 percent of Harris 2024 voters agree on deportations. But the method of removal is a different story: Forty-nine percent oppose ICE raids while 48 percent support the raids signaling a ripe opportunity for Trump and the GOP to further capitalize on voter trust on the issue by connecting the principle of deportation to the means of fulfilling that promise to voters.
“Americans know Trump got the border under control,” Tarascio said. “Outside of the Democratic base—where 54% give him no credit—every other voter segment, including Independents, gives Trump substantial credit. This is a major accomplishment, and he should make the economic case himself: how controlling the border eases housing pressures, protects blue-collar jobs, and stabilizes costs for American families. Connecting border security to economic security is critical as Americans’ top concern has shifted back to inflation and the economy.”
Reproductive Republicans: like so many nontraditional issues for Republicans in the pre-Trump era, the President’s policies on IVF are widely popular with American voters. Sixty percent said President Trump’s recent actions promoting access to IVF were meaningful steps or felt that still more can be done. Meanwhile, Harris 2024 voters are 11 points more likely than Trump voters to say the government shouldn’t be promoting IVF – reaffirming yet another “data versus dogma” situation where Republicans are seen more as the party of families.
AI Bridge Too Far: 60 percent of voters have zero trust in AI usage in political campaigns, even if responsibly and ethically, and 54 percent see it as a serious threat to campaigning. In both questions, it was clear across party affiliation, demographics, and vote history that AI’s role in modern politics is an unwelcome one. Less clear is whether either party will see an advantage in dividing the public on this issue or leverage it as a rare moment of bipartisanship where policymaking actually keeps pace with technological advancement.