WASHINGTON, D.C. (September 18, 2024) – Cygnal, one of the nation’s fastest growing and most accurate private polling firms, released the following national battlegrounds poll (conducted Sept. 11-13) of 1,503 likely general election voters.
“While Harris enjoys a post-debate bump across these battlegrounds, Trump’s numbers have remained stable since March,” said Pollster and VP of Polling, Brock McCleary. “The biggest delta in this data is the job approval of Trump’s time in office versus the current Biden-Harris administration. This provides a clear path for Trump to win by contrasting how voters felt about their circumstances, and the direction of the country, when he was at the helm. The numbers for Harris represent a correction in the data that demonstrates how severely Americans were rejecting Joe Biden in July, not that they adore Harris in September. The data shows Trump voters like and support him more as a candidate than do Harris voters. If Trump can sustain his narrow advantage and down-ballot Republicans can weather September’s disparity in negative advertising, Republicans can close strong in October.”
McCleary’s top takeaways are:
Horse Race: On the head-to-head presidential ballot, Kamala Harris (48%) leads Trump (47%) with only five percent of the electorate remaining undecided. More than half of voters still disapprove of the Biden-Harris Administration, including 54 precent of Independent voters and plurality of Democrats (40%) only somewhat approve. Voters are split on whether Harris represents their political views and values (50% no, 49% yes).
Motivations: Trump voters (54%) are more likely to be voting for a candidate they ‘like and support’ than Harris (47%). Trump’s image remains stable with at +2 favorable. Independent voters (65%) think the country is on the wrong track. A strong majority of voters (84%) said the stakes in the 2024 election are higher than previous elections.
Debate Winner: More than half (54%) of voters described Kamala Harris as the winner of last Tuesday’s presidential debate while 25 percent said Trump won and more than a quarter of Republicans (28%) and Independents (27%) said neither candidate won the debate.
Top Issues: Inflation and the cost of living (30%) remains the top priority among battleground voters with 20 percent saying border security and illegal immigration is the top issue. A distant third is ‘threats to democracy’ (12%).
Key Demo: A majority of voters (59%) will decide who they will vote for more than a month out from Election Day. Only 10 percent said they are deciding on Election Day. Young women (17%), non-college educated men (13%), non-college educated women (14%), and Republicans (13%) are most likely to decide on Election Day.